Another folding war hand - muck TT and even AA?

    • maxwi
      maxwi
      Black
      Joined: 23.08.2007 Posts: 451
      Excellent folding war thread by pzhon!

      I just encountered this situation:

      6-max bubble
      60:40 payout structure
      300/600 blinds

      What is the correct play for hero here?
      TT has around 75% equity against ATC.

      No Limit Holdem Tournament
      3 Players

      Stacks:
      BTN (540)
      Hero (SB) (400)
      BB (11,060)

      Blinds: 300/600

      Pre-Flop: (900, 3 players) Hero is SB 10:spade: 10:heart:
      BTN folds

      Hero ?

      The big stack played a bit weird at times and there is about a 6-10% chance he would give the other shorty a walk in the very next hand.
      (Yes, I am very confident of this because I have experienced it so many times. Fishy big stacks do fold 42o for ridiculous odds. They just think:"Oh, I have one of the worst hands in poker. I fold.")

      By doubling up I still have a slight chance for 1st place but if I fold the probability for finishing 1st drops dramatically.

      I felt that pushing is slightly better than folding but I might be horribly wrong. :f_confused:


      Thank you for your expert opinion pzhon.
  • 6 replies
    • NamenIos
      NamenIos
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.02.2007 Posts: 1,009
      The two resulting situations are:
      SitA
      BTN 10820
      SB 1020 -300
      Hero 100 Autoallin

      and

      SitB
      BTN 10120
      SB 1020 -300
      Hero 800 200 left after bb next hand autoallin if he folds

      On the hand before BB busts 50% of the times (are you really sure the bb can fold sth for just 240 chips and more than 3:1)

      So we have when we call TT 0,75*0,5+0,75*0,5*SitB = 0,375+0,375*SitB
      And when we fold 0,5+0,5*SitA
      The be point is then 0,375+0,375*SitB = 0,5 + 0,5*SitA -> 0,75*SitB = 0,25+SitA
      Considering that we have 25% chance to get ITM in SitA we would need 66% Chance in SitB, if we think we have 0% Chance to get ITM in SitA we need 33% chance in SitB to get ITM edit: This is linear obv.

      If the Bigstack cant fold the next hand we cant call here imo ill try to edit the 10% chance that the bigstack fold in after eating sth.

      ok if he gets a walk it is basicly the same as when he will win the flip so we have as our new be point 0,75*0,45+0,75*0.55*SitB = 0,45 + 0,55*SitA -> 0,4125*SitB = 0,1125 + 0,55*SitA
      So we need have 0%SitA - 27,3%SitB ; 25%SitA - 60,1%SitB, again linear. This would be for a 10% chance that the bs folds (even a slight bit more bc if the bs pushes only 90% he would have more than 50% chance to win)

      The chance of making first place is really neglectable, esp with the 60/40 structure. (when comparing 800 to 100 chips its about 1% more of the prizepool comparing to 40% for just making itm)
    • maxwi
      maxwi
      Black
      Joined: 23.08.2007 Posts: 451
      Nice post NamenIos.

      After thinking it through again I come to the conclusion
      that a fold is clearly best here because the other shortstack
      has a nearly sure forced allin.

      A double up to 800 does not really help hero.

      He still has less chips than the other shortstack if he survives and

      hero will have to pay the BB again before the other shortstack.

      It is not worth it taking the 75% gamble.

      Despite SNGWizard recommending an easy any two cards push in this hand
      I think it is best to even muck AA!

      Does anyone disagree?

      :f_confused:
    • NamenIos
      NamenIos
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.02.2007 Posts: 1,009
      Sorry for the comma it should be a decimal point in my last posts, im used to the comma in my mother tounge.
      So we have when we call TT 0.85*0.5+0.85*0.5*SitB = 0.425+0.425*SitB
      And when we fold 0.5+0.5*SitA
      The be point is then 0.425+0.425*SitB = 0.5+0.5*SitA -> 0.85*SitB = 0.15 + SitA
      When having 0% chance of winning SitA we need 17.6% itm on SitB or when we have 25% equity in SitA we need 47% itm.

      Close but its clearly not a big equity decision to push or muck aa. I think its slightly more profitable to push aa, buts its def really slim.
    • pzhon
      pzhon
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      I believe in this hand, you can look forward enough to get situations the ICM can evaluate. That is not always the case in a folding war.

      If you fold the SB, you will have 100 on the BTN with the big blind all-in for 540. I think the ICM should be accurate enough at the end of the next hand, and so we can use the Nash calculator's evaluation of 21.15%.

      If you call and lose, you get 0. Ties are negligible when you have a pocket pair like TT. (They would be much more common if you had a hand like A5.) If you call and double up to 800, then I think the ICM is again going to be reasonable at the end of the next hand, although I think it will tend to overstate your equity because you would post the big blind after that. Posting most of your stack as the big blind is not as big of a distortion when you are the shortest stack anyway. The Nash calculator's evaluation is that if you double up now,

      BTN (Hero): 800
      SB: 10660
      BB: 540 (all-in)

      you will have 30.36% equity.

      A very interesting phenomenon that I think most people would not expect is that you are not supposed to play very tightly from the BTN in this second situation. I'll talk more about the multiway penalty later, but the shortest stack is heavily penalized if you play a 3-way pot all-in, and you should not be so averse to getting all-in as the second stack once the shortest stack is all-in by posting the big blind. So, the Nash calculator suggests that you should push 33% from the BTN, knowing that this will usually produce a 3-way all-in.

      If you trust these numbers, then the equity you need against a random hand to call in the original hand is 21.15/30.36 = 69.66%. 99 has 72.06% and seems to be a call. 88 has 69.16% and appears to be a close fold.

      Of course, you can modify these calculations in case you want to drill deeper into the second scenario, or to adjust the first one for the chance that the big stack will give the big blind a walk. I think the former will slightly increase the equity you need, while the latter will slightly decrease it.

      An advantage of this method is that it is simple enough to apply it with other prize structures. Once you are down to 3-handed, a 50-30-20 structure is equivalent to a 75-25 structure. 70-30 and 65-35 structures are more common for 6-handed SNGs, and we can also look at a super satellite which pays 2 people, 50-50.

      75-25: 13.54/21.72 = 62.34% 66+ A9s+ ATo+ KJs+
      70-30: 16.07/24.6 = 65.32% 77+ AJs+ AKo
      65:35: 18.61/27.5 = 67.67% 88+
      60-40: 21.15/30.36 = 69.66 99+ (calculated above)
      50-50: 26.22/35.73 = 73.38% TT+
    • NamenIos
      NamenIos
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.02.2007 Posts: 1,009
      Originally posted by pzhon
      BTN (Hero): 800
      SB: 10660
      BB: 540 (all-in)

      you will have 30.36% equity.

      A very interesting phenomenon that I think most people would not expect is that you are not supposed to play very tightly from the BTN in this second situation. I'll talk more about the multiway penalty later, but the shortest stack is heavily penalized if you play a 3-way pot all-in, and you should not be so averse to getting all-in as the second stack once the shortest stack is all-in by posting the big blind. So, the Nash calculator suggests that you should push 33% from the BTN, knowing that this will usually produce a 3-way all-in.
      Wow, does heros loose pushing range makes that much of a difference there?

      Assuming you would fold almost any two cards here i think my calculations are ok.

      But still im not really convinced. This Situation seems so unprofitable for my assumptions:
      BTN 10120
      SB 1020 -300
      Hero 800 200 left after bb next hand autoallin if he folds

      So ill calc a bit. I think the biggest point is that icm see Hero not that much behind he is in the upper situation and you should push tighter than 33%. I'll have to create much more possibilities sadly i will have to wait to wednesday to find some time for that.
    • maxwi
      maxwi
      Black
      Joined: 23.08.2007 Posts: 451
      Great stuff pzhon!

      Thank you.

      :)