[NL2-NL10] NL 10 blufbets

    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      1)
      Known players: (for a description of vp$ip, pfr, ats, folded bb, af, wts, wsd or hands click here)        
      Position:
      Stack
      MP3:
      $8,84
      Hero:
      $10,16

      0,05/0,10 No-Limit Hold'em (10 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.8 by www.pokerstrategy.cc.

      Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A:spade: , J:diamond:
      3 folds, Hero raises to $0,40, MP2 folds, MP3 calls $0,40, 4 folds.

      Flop: ($0,95) K:diamond: , 4:diamond: , 7:spade: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0,60, MP3 raises to $1,40, Hero raises to $3,00, MP3 folds.

      Final Pot: $5,35

      The board didn´t look so good, so I thought he might re-raise with flushdraw, TT-88, AQ or who knows. I thought that I would probably re-raise here with my AK or aces, so I 3-bet with nothing. Worked out this time. Don´t know if it should be used against unknowns, but I felt that he had nothing.

      2)
      Known players: (for a description of vp$ip, pfr, ats, folded bb, af, wts, wsd or hands click here)       
      Position:
      Stack
      MP3:
      $14,98
      Hero:
      $9,89

      0,05/0,10 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.8 by www.pokerstrategy.cc.

      Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 5:spade: , 5:heart:
      Hero calls $0,10, 3 folds, MP3 raises to $0,50, 4 folds, Hero calls $0,40.

      Flop: ($1,15) 7:diamond: , T:club: , 9:spade: (2 players)
      Hero checks, MP3 bets $0,60, Hero raises to $1,20, MP3 calls $0,60.

      Turn: ($3,55) 2:club: (2 players)
      Hero bets $2, MP3 folds.

      Final Pot: $5,55

      limp/called for set value. Board was kind of scary, so I decided to play, like I hit my set. Hoped that he would fold his overcards after I check/raise. I had to lead out the turn to win the pot. This can be expensive, but even NL 10 players know when to fold overpairs and I can´t be 100% sure that he has JJ-AA

      3)
      Known players: (for a description of vp$ip, pfr, ats, folded bb, af, wts, wsd or hands click here)    
      Position:
      Stack
      Hero:
      $14,68
      UTG+2:
      $6,19
      BB:
      $1,90
      BU:
      $9,40
      MP3:
      $0

      0,05/0,10 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.8 by www.pokerstrategy.cc.

      Preflop: Hero is CO with 7:heart: , 6:heart: . MP3 posts a blind of $0,10.
      UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls $0,10, 2 folds, MP3 checks, Hero calls $0,10, BU calls $0,10, SB folds, BB checks.

      Flop: ($0,55) J:spade: , 5:club: , 4:spade: (5 players)
      BB checks, UTG+2 checks, MP3 bets $0,20, Hero calls $0,20, BU calls $0,20, 2 folds.

      Turn: ($1,15) Q:heart: (3 players)
      MP3 checks, Hero bets $0,50, 2 folds.

      Final Pot: $1,65

      No so sure about this, but seemed like MP2 had nothing or maybe some weak pair, Bu could hold any two. So I decided to take the pot with my oesd.^^
  • 8 replies
    • Puschkin81
      Puschkin81
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.04.2006 Posts: 4,786
      Hi Kaitz20!

      Dangerous play in all three hands.

      Hand 1) fold against the raise. Even if he has the flushdraw: you don't know it and possibly run into a better hand. Your feeling doesn't suffice.

      Hand 2) As you already mentioned: a dangerous board. And definitely not all NL10 players fold their overcards or overpairs here. Easy fold.

      Hand 3) Check behind and try to get a free card.

      Good luck at the tables!
      Puschkin81
    • gutshotstraightdraw
      gutshotstraightdraw
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.07.2007 Posts: 112
      I don't see why you should bluff at any point. Why don't you wait for better spots to get money from your opponents? You are risking too much money to win too less money imho.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Can´t always wait sets to get their money. It is dangerous, but quite rewarding. I need to put opponent some kind of hand ranges:
      Hand 1: I´m risking another 2,4$ to win 5,35$. So I he has to fold 1/3rd of the time to be +ev. What hand did he called pre-flop and now re-raiseng KT, KJ, KQ is one of the option, he can´t call my 3-bet with KJ and KT. He could flopped the set, but that also isn´t always true, so I put him on the flush draw or weak K.
      Hand 2: This is a little tricky: he has to have overcards to fold his hand. If pair is dealt at every 220 hand and I have already one pair 55, what is the %, that he has also pair rather than overcards. I think it should be under 50%.
      I was right this time, but don´t know yet, if it is profitable, but hadn´t tried that again.
      Hand 3: I think that against some opponents that play is quite useful. Again they have to fold just every 3-rd time that I would win that hand. Also I have 8 outs to win with straight and no-one shouldn´t put me on OESD on the turn.

      If I´m willing to lay down overpairs on dry flop, then I should also use some advanced moves and don´t give up pot so easily. In HU you don´t play with the cards, you play with your opponent:)
    • erob60
      erob60
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.03.2007 Posts: 165
      Not that this relates to the hands or anything, but your probability logic is wrong - the chance of anyone being dealt a SPECIFIC pair is 1/220, but any random pair is 1/17. Also, the fact that you have pair doesn't decrease the chance someone else also has one (unless you are considering that they have exactly the same pair).
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Thanks for explaining erob. But I would still like to know, what is the % that in 10 handed play there are dealt two pairs pre-flop^^ Not that is anything do with that hand, but it is good to know. Also I´ve heard that if I´m dealt KK, every 27-th time the opponent gets AA- is that right?
    • snowylee
      snowylee
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.01.2007 Posts: 701
      Without solid reads I would never try anything like this. You see, this have been one of my biggest problems, trying to make a much more fancy move than one should at these levels. But as I said, if you have a really really solid read, sure you can do it, otherwise? No chance in hell. And as far as I know, most people cant fold their TP yo! Let alone overpair hehe
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Hand 2. There isn´t 100% sure, that he is holding overpair. That´s why I asked questions.
    • snowylee
      snowylee
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.01.2007 Posts: 701
      In my experience it absolutely isnt worth it to try to represent a set if you put them on an overpair. I myself have lost quite some on such things trying to be cute :/