Questioning my poker confidence

    • DonCorleone369
      DonCorleone369
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2009 Posts: 1,267
      Helluw Everyone,

      I've been playing SNG's since begin January this year starting at the $1 SNG's at Pokerstars. I started playing 1 table at a time until I found myself playing 8 tables comfortably at the $3 SNG's...

      Anyway I don't have yet HEM or PT3, but I do use Pokerscore and keep record of every sessions etc.. and to my conclusions the first 3 months (9man $3.40 SNG's march, april, may) I had played 1111 Games with an ROI of 16,19%.

      So in June I wanted to play even more and I had the goal of trying to maintain a 14%-16% ROI..but I didn't work out that way.. Bad variance had struck me.. Thus, in the month June I've only played 413 Games with a 3,25% ROI ?( .. So I took some time (+-2 weeks) to relax and strengthen my poker mindset (bought the book: "the poker mindset" ;) ) and reread again SNG articles.. I went reviewing my hands as well as posting them etc..

      So going to July I hoped It was going to go better now.. Unfortunately I've played 69 games and I am now down to -29,80 % ROI ?( .. In those 69 games, I found myself playing very well but I just couldn't win many necessary coinflips, 70/30 favorites, running into sick coolers etc..

      Offcourse, I did make some mistakes here and there (like everyone does) but I still believed that I was playing above average and pretty much the same as in the 3 previous month, maybe even better due to improvement efforts..

      Now I was just wondering if a 482 Games (413+69) "downswing" is COMMON??? ... I mean I've read some articles about SNG variance.. and I noticed that if you have a decent example size (which I had: 1111) and have a positive ROI (also: 16,19%) that you should experienced much less variance than break-even/losing players in the long term... And they also say that the higher your BI limit the more variance u will experience in general.. So I'm just worried if I already get this kind of downswing at this $3,40 microlimit.. how would that be in the above limits ???..

      At last, I just wanted to post this not to have compassion from other poker players but just to have a feedback on the 2 above questions... I just want to boost up my confidence back because right now it actually is on almost 0% :tongue: ...


      Thx 4 any useful feedback!!!


      Greetzz
  • 2 replies
    • Waiboy
      Waiboy
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.09.2008 Posts: 4,877
      In all honesty, you're looking at this from the wrong perspective.

      Re-read "The Poker Mindset" as the answers are all in there.

      All you can ever do is play each hand better than the last. The only way to do this is through constant study and evaluation. The results you experience are essentially don't matter as you can't do anything about them. They are the combination of the quality of your play, the quality of your opponents play and natural variance. You have to forget about results - they are simply not relevant as long as you are putting sufficient effort into improving every aspect of your play on an ongoing basis.

      Asking about whether your ROI is acceptable kinda doesn't matter. What matters is that you have a systematic method of improving every aspect of your game, you apply that system on an ongoing basis and that you follow BRM. This is all you ever need to know to become and remain a winning player in the long term.

      And variance can be more sick than you can even begin to contemplate. One of the key battles of any aspiring poker player is acknowledging and understanding this truth.

      My two cents anyway. I hope this helps in some way! :f_grin:

      EDIT: I recommend you searching out Boku87's graph from his $100 to $10k (I think?) challenge.. he goes through some epic b/e stretches for 100s of games highlighting why worrying about results just doesn't matter.
    • DonCorleone369
      DonCorleone369
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2009 Posts: 1,267
      Ok... Thx for ur honest advice which I really appreciate.. Yeah it's true that you can actually find all the answers in "The Poker Mindset".. and of course I still have many leaks in my game that needs an ongoing improvement..

      Posting my "concern" is just a way for me towards really accepting the 5 realities of poker which is (for players who haven't read the book):

      1. Poker is a game of both skill and luck.

      2. In the short term, luck is king.

      3. In the long term, skill is king.

      4. Poker is a game of small edges.

      5. Poker is a game of high variance.

      You need not only to understand these 5 Realities of Poker, but more important you need to Accept them.

      Thx for ur feedback once again..


      Greetz