[NL2-NL10] Facing Overbet Shove on Scary Turn with AA

    • Kidsoldja
      Kidsoldja
      Basic
      Joined: 18.05.2010 Posts: 51
      It's official. If I get AA, good things do not happen for me. (forgive the temporary results orientedness). BB is 78/11, but I only have data for 9 hands, so we can probably take this with a grain of salt.

      Hero (MP): $25.25
      CO: $49.08
      BTN: $24.45
      SB: $65.13
      BB: $32.05
      UTG: $48.93

      Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is MP with A :heart: A :spade:
      1 fold, Hero raises to $0.75, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.75, 1 fold, BB calls $0.50

      Flop: ($2.35) 4 :club: 5 :heart: 8 :club: (3 players)
      BB bets $0.25, Hero raises to $2.75, BTN folds, BB calls $2.50

      Turn: ($7.85) 7 :heart: (2 players)
      BB bets $28.55 all in, Hero requests TIME, Hero folds

      Final Pot: $7.85
      BB wins $7.46
      (Rake: $0.39)

      Thoughts?
  • 2 replies
    • blackops888
      blackops888
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.04.2010 Posts: 502
      Hi kidsoldja. I know how you feel when you say that whenever you get AA something bad happens. I wouldn't say that bad things might necessarily happen, but the fact is that when you get AA or KK your decisions actually become a little bit tougher. The reason? It is difficult to lay them down.

      First of all, I think you've done right in laying down your hand, but done wrong on your pre-flop raise, and I'll tell you why.

      This player is basically an unknown. He certainly has a tendency of being a fish or even a maniac with those stats, but you have no more than 9 hands and this amount of samples does not allow us to make any accurate judgement about him. Still, given his bet amount on the flop, I'm inclined (but not 100% convinced) to think of him as a fish.

      If you had $0.35 on the pot pre-flop, I think you were playing NL25, right? So... Your raise of $0.75 pre-flop was a bit of a mistake, but not a complete one. Maybe you could have had a different outcome if you raised to the standard 4BB, or $1.00 pre-flop. You had a that BU calling and it certainly gave the BB the correct odds to call with, let's say, suited connectors like 67s, 68s or 78s or small pocket pairs like 22 to 88, hitting trips.

      On the flop there was that tiny $0.25 bet from the BB, which says to me that he could either have a piece of the flop with suited connectors, a straight draw or, worse, a set. If he had a set that bet could have been a trap just to make you raise for him, once he could have thought that a donk bet with a set might actually scare both you and the BU away from the pot. This way the just called your big raise after the BU folded.

      Anyway, for some reason that 7 on the turn convinced him to move all-in with 100BB+. That was enough for you to lay down. You could be beat by a ton of things, like sets of 4s, 5s, 7s or 8s, straights or two pairs like 78, 75, 45, etc. I've seen some crazy people shoving with nothing but a flush draw in these spots, but that's unlikely even in this limit with a shove of 100BB+.

      It also makes me think that if he had a set or two pair on the flop, he might still try to slowplay it if the turn was a spade, for example, but once that heart hit and a second flush draw appeared, he finally had to make an agressive move.

      So... I think your lay down was good, once the odds were too great against your overpair. Only donks and fishes onverplay their overpairs (especially AA and KK), so you should be alright with your capacity of judgement.
    • MaestroOfZerg
      MaestroOfZerg
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510
      Hi,

      Originally posted by blackops888
      Hi kidsoldja. I know how you feel when you say that whenever you get AA something bad happens. I wouldn't say that bad things might necessarily happen, but the fact is that when you get AA or KK your decisions actually become a little bit tougher. The reason? It is difficult to lay them down.

      First of all, I think you've done right in laying down your hand, but done wrong on your pre-flop raise, and I'll tell you why.

      This player is basically an unknown. He certainly has a tendency of being a fish or even a maniac with those stats, but you have no more than 9 hands and this amount of samples does not allow us to make any accurate judgment about him. Still, given his bet amount on the flop, I'm inclined (but not 100% convinced) to think of him as a fish.

      If you had $0.35 on the pot pre-flop, I think you were playing NL25, right? So... Your raise of $0.75 pre-flop was a bit of a mistake, but not a complete one. Maybe you could have had a different outcome if you raised to the standard 4BB, or $1.00 pre-flop. You had a that BU calling and it certainly gave the BB the correct odds to call with, let's say, suited connectors like 67s, 68s or 78s or small pocket pairs like 22 to 88, hitting trips.

      On the flop there was that tiny $0.25 bet from the BB, which says to me that he could either have a piece of the flop with suited connectors, a straight draw or, worse, a set. If he had a set that bet could have been a trap just to make you raise for him, once he could have thought that a donk bet with a set might actually scare both you and the BU away from the pot. This way the just called your big raise after the BU folded.

      Anyway, for some reason that 7 on the turn convinced him to move all-in with 100BB+. That was enough for you to lay down. You could be beat by a ton of things, like sets of 4s, 5s, 7s or 8s, straights or two pairs like 78, 75, 45, etc. I've seen some crazy people shoving with nothing but a flush draw in these spots, but that's unlikely even in this limit with a shove of 100BB+.

      It also makes me think that if he had a set or two pair on the flop, he might still try to slowplay it if the turn was a spade, for example, but once that heart hit and a second flush draw appeared, he finally had to make an aggressive move.

      So... I think your lay down was good, once the odds were too great against your overpair. Only donks and fishes overplay their overpairs (especially AA and KK), so you should be alright with your capacity of judgment.
      Sounds good overall, you might even make it 5-6bb preflop knowing that this call in the blinds, some people just won't care about the difference and 78/11 guys easily fit that profile. Even after only 9 hands it's enough to say he's bad.

      On the flop you'll usually see those players minbet/3bet if they have something like a set, so I'd tend to weight his range more towards stuff that is drawing somehow and needs to see a turn, tho it's certainly possible for him to try and slowplay a set then suddenly get scared of just how drawy the board is.

      I think you'll see a random 6x hand too often here to call it off, but on slightly different boards it's certainly possible to catch people doing that with stuff as weak as a gutshot sometimes.


      Hope it helps.


      Hope it helps.