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[NL20-NL50] NL 25 SH, KK, 3bet pot, F: T72s, Vs TAG

    • Anger86
      Joined: 17.08.2008 Posts: 511
      Hand converted with online hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.1/$0.25 No-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)

      Known players:
      CO (Hero):

      Preflop: Hero is CO with K, K.
      MP3 raises to $0.85, Hero raises to $3.00, 3 folds, MP3 calls $2.15.

      Flop: ($6.35) 7, 2, T (2 players)
      MP3 bets $2.50, Hero raises to $9.00, MP3 raises to $33.35, Hero calls $13.00(All-In).

      Villain stats:
      4bet range 1.5%
      Fold to 3bet: 60%
      DONK BET: 0%
      WTsD/$: 22/44

      I'm wondering about his donk-bet on the flop,
      because thet is often a set IMO.
      At the same time, it suck to call a flop,
      because I want to protect if he donks /w
      A:spade: K:spade: , K:spade: Q:spade: , K:spade: J:spade: , 8:spade: 9:spade: , J:spade: 9:spade:
      As he is just folding 60 % to 3bets,
      then I think that all of these hands are possible in his /c range.
      And sets also.

      Interesting, if is he /c QQ Vs 3bet, but I assume he could call TT-QQ.
      Then again, would he donk-bet JJ-QQ on this board?

      So against this range I'm getting 44% equity.
      (QQ-TT, 77, 22, AsKs, KsQs, KsJs, Js9s, 9s8s)

      Is there something you would do differently?
  • 6 replies
    • 0890477319
      Joined: 17.02.2010 Posts: 1,139
      AsKs and maybe KsQs is only reasonable draw hands for such a player. Don't think he could ever cold call oop KsJs 8s9s cause you show to much stregth here.
      Also TT-QQ make sence.
      Against such range you are huge favorite, but such a donk really weird. If you were too agro and raise donk much, his play pretty well against you. And with just overpair he rather bet bigger, so it either FD+over card or set. And in such caise you re very way behind

      Board: 7s2cts

      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 71,879% 71,879% 0,000% 28,121% TT, AsKs, KsQs
      Player 2: 28,121% 28,121% 0,000% 71,879% KhKc
    • N0pr3s3n7
      Joined: 14.05.2009 Posts: 1,296
      Only reasonable draws he would play like this are 8s9s and Js9s.He is never calling KQ,JQ, because he knows they are dominated all day long if he hits 1 pair and even 2 pairs.Only draw he will play like this for me is 8s9s hence he won't be willing to put it all in with 2 overcards(AsKs) he also knows he might have 0 overcards and he is left with only flushdraw so he is never stacking off here with JQ,KQ,AK of spades.J9 is a bit questonable but i don't think he will donk it since he doesn't want to be raised on the flop(same goes for other draws without 8s9s as there he got enough eq).

      His range here is TT/AA and in some rare cases JJ/QQ if he thinks you 3bet him wide and he is willing to go broke on T high board(e.g. without A/K/Q).
      I'd fold to his reraise on the flop although it's really hard decision.

      Let us know what he had if you are willing to after a judge looks over the hand
    • 0890477319
      Joined: 17.02.2010 Posts: 1,139
      The guy has fold to3b 60%, no way he could call 8s9s or Js9s oop to 3b. And there is no reasonable 2pairs hand there.
      And if you reraise, you can't fold to his shove just cause of pot odds. So either you reraise/call, or call him, push blank turn.
    • Anger86
      Joined: 17.08.2008 Posts: 511
      Thank you guys!

      I guess, I made a mistake with ranges.
      Now I think it should be like that:
      He is playing 18% hands from MP,
      folding 60% from these hands after 3bet.
      So he is folding also 22, 77, 8:spade: 9:spade: , 9:spade: J:spade: ,
      but I think he is calling TT-QQ and also K:spade: Q:spade: , K:spade: J:spade: , A:spade: K:spade: ,
      which is somewhat a top of his range.

      In other words: He is opening about 240 hand combinations,
      but calling/4betting just about 100 (40%).

      My equity against that range - TT, JJ, QQ, KsQs, AsKs, KsJs is about 27%.
      Btw, K :spade: Q :spade: , K :spade: J :spade: , A :spade: K :spade: - change equity only by a 1-3%, so it doesn't matter so much.

      To 0890477319,
      Yes, I also think, that I can't fold to a flop raise
    • N0pr3s3n7
      Joined: 14.05.2009 Posts: 1,296
      Guys i think you didn't carefully consider one thing.When you put some on range it isn't ever the TOP one , let's assume I call 20% 3bets(I fold 80% of the time) you say i call TT+,AK,KQ,KJ ( for example too lazy to estimate the exact range etc etc) But in fact my thought are as follows: I never call KQ , KJ because i know they are always dominated so with which hands do i call if i don't call KQ and KJ ???? I call 89,T9,JT for example because i know if I hit with them my outs are clear and most of the time i will get payed off(I most of the time call 3bets OOP if i think the opponents is super loose and agro to pay me off 100% of the time with his full stack so i get enough implied odds).If he called you there with KJ,JQ,KQ so he has ENORMOUS leaks.He is either showing with 8s9s or set /overpairs.
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      since you´re only likely beat by 77/TT/22, although a lot of people doesn´t really b/c oop with 22, then I like your raise and also calling shove
      His range has enough JJ/QQ and flushdraws to make raise/call profitable on the flop