Big Blind any two steel

    • Postkonform
      Joined: 11.08.2009 Posts: 2

      I have thought about a specific line, which I want to discuss about. First I am no newbie, I'm just actually not tracked by Pokerstrategy. Second, maybe this is already a standard line, if so good, else please tell me what you think.

      Be the exact following situation given:

      Me sitting in the Big Blind. Exactly one limp from middle-position or better. Small Blind completes.

      My line now is: Bet any two and continue bet on the flop no matter what. For the following mathematical reason (it's a pure mathematical line)(BB=Big Blind, not Big Bet):

      Let's assume the following percentages (I think they should match normal play, I give 2 different values, which both have +EV I think):

      No call: 20%/20%
      One call:40%/60%
      Both call:60%/40%

      That makes a to win pot of(not taking to account the one/two bets you made):

      0.2 x 3BB + 0.4 x 4BB + 0.6 x 5BB = 5.2BB
      or in second case
      0.2 x 3BB + 0.6 x 4BB + 0.4 x 5BB = 5BB
      => 5.1BB in average

      Investement on average:
      0.2 x 1BB + 0.8 x 2BB = 1.8BB

      so its 1.8BB/ 5.1BB = 6/17
      Taking into account, that you sometimes hit something good or really have good cards were you actually win a bigger pot we may round to

      6/18 = 1/3

      So this line should be profitable if it only works slightly more than in 1 out of 3 situations. In exactly 1 ouf of 3 it would be +/- 0

      What do you think? Is there any misscalculation or is this a good (maybe new) standard line. I read about check/donkbet, but I think this might be a better line assuming my calculations and assumings are near to the reality.
      Not really important, but my personal experience on low limits seems to make the line profitable, but I do not have enough sample size on this particular line.

      Addition: I think if a limper is in UTG position he to often has a good pocket pair, so this line won't work often enough (also discussable).


  • 3 replies
    • Dawnfall26
      Joined: 30.07.2008 Posts: 3,116

      I dont really get your equations but I didnt really invest a lot of time...however... I found flaw in your writing

      1) chance that limper or SB completer will fold to one raise is far less than 20% and probably around 5% and chance that both of them will fold close to 0%(this is FL and noone folds for 1SB more:) )

      generaly(without any matematic but purely strategical background) there is definatelly no need to raise any 2 in your case. First limper is obviously bad player(since limping first in is bad) will often be verySD bound and therefore I preffer to raise hands that have some SD value and have equity edge(good Ahighs,good Khighs,pockets)
      With certain reads that may go even wider but I would not go there against unknowns(I preffer to play small postflop pots where you can make much better decitions)
    • Postkonform
      Joined: 11.08.2009 Posts: 2
      Damn... found the mistake myself... obviously the percentage does not add up to 100 but to 120... lol
      Sorry for that. Under that circumstances it's getting worse. (Only 1 to 2.25), so the opponents would have to fold in about 50% of the cases which is not given....

      Sorry for that... Should have calculated once more before posting...

      On the strategic point of view your totally right. I only thought I had found a mathematical +EV Situation... which obviously was a mistake :) .
    • pzhon
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      The main problem is that someone who limps in will almost never fold preflop for one more small bet.

      When you are bluffing or looking for immediate profit, you should include the bets you make in the size of the pot if you are going to divide your investment by the size of the pot. If you bet 1 SB into a 3 SB pot, you need to win 1 time in 4 to show an immediate profit.

      Another problem is that you are implicitly comparing your line with open-folding. Your alternative should be playing the hand normally. If you just want to find something better than open-folding, there are many easy strategies, such as folding to any bet, or playing when you flop quads but folding otherwise. It is harder to find an alternative better than playing normally.