[NL2-NL10] nl 200 - shallow stack - 99 sqz

    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $2(BB) Replayer
      SB ($83.50)
      BB ($123)
      UTG ($88.60)
      UTG+1 ($40)
      CO ($217)
      Hero ($104)

      Dealt to Hero 9:heart: 9:club:

      fold, UTG+1 raises to $6, CO calls $6, Hero raises to $24, fold, fold, UTG+1 raises to $40 (AI), fold, Hero calls $16

      FLOP ($89) J:diamond: 8:spade: 8:heart:

      TURN ($89) J:diamond: 8:spade: 8:heart: 2:diamond:

      RIVER ($89) J:diamond: 8:spade: 8:heart: 2:diamond: 7:heart:

      So mainly posting this to check my math. After the session, I came up with following calcs. Villain is 13/12 after 617 hands. (Dead money fish is 47/18 in 80 hands). Villain fold 3bet is 43%; 4bet 29% (4bet range = 3.2% = 88+).

      Assuming fish always folds to Sqz, we get:
      0.43 * $15 ($6 + $6 +$3 +$1) = $6.45, plus
      0.57 * (Eq 0.3 [i.e. 99 vs 3.2% range] * $49 less 0.7 * $40)

      for total profit of -$1.23 (excluding rake).

      First, can someone confirm whether I'm on the right lines here?
      second, it seems this is not a profitable spot to squeeze from the above. Third, once we get 4bet, we have to call, correct?

      (fold ev = 0
      call ev = 0.3 * $73 (i.e. $21.9) less cost of call of $16 = $5.9)

      given everything I have said, am I better off just calling pre? I could ship pre but it seems excessive to ship 50bb eff vs the fish. I think it's clear I'm committed against the original raiser so I don't think there are any other hands he's shoving vs me (i.e. I don't think he perceived as having any fold equity against me).
      thanks
  • 2 replies
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Let me first ask you: why do you want to Fish out of the pot? Because that is what you mostly are doing if you squeeze here because originalRaiser can shove over you.
      In the end the fish willl be mostly folding hence losing value because UTG+1 plays 13/12

      So about the hand:
      UTG+1 range is surely TIGHTER than the average of 12 PFR so let's say we take around 8 PFR which is around AJ+,KQ+,99+

      So your nines is first of all at the bottom of his range. Secondly the hands he is folding is like KQo,AJo,KQs,AJs,{AQ,TT-99 depending on gameflow}

      So leaving AJ/KQ out you have a range of around 5% hence your fold equity is 1-[5/8] = 37.5%, not really astonishing.

      So facing 99+,AQ+ you have around 37% equity as well once again not astonishing.

      Filling in the blanks Pot, Effective Stack, Dead money, FEQ, EQ you get an EV of -$1 aka 0.5bb

      If you substrct rake, one earns even less so that's why squeezing against a SSS player isn't profitable

      If you squeeze however, you have to call it off


      Best regards,

      Gerv
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      Hi Gerv,

      Thanks for confirming my conclusions - not a profitable spot. For completeness, 617 hands on villain.

      I agree, also, that a call seems much better since by squeezing I just isolate myself against the tight regular's range. :rolleyes:

      Thanks for your time