[LOCK PLZ]Questions about my graph/running bad etc

    • conall88
      conall88
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      Joined: 02.01.2009 Posts: 1,715


      This graph is a mix of 4NL (90%) and 10NL (10%). ( graph in BB's is almost identical however).


      just curious if anyone can deduce some potential leaks from my graph, and also wondering how long I can expect to run under EV.


      running at 10bb/100 even tho i'm under Ev so I guess I shouldn't complain, but it just feels slow without rakeback and since I'm at the micros. sigh :)

      (playing at party poker)

      edit: ignore the the center slump, its the "monster", and Ive cured the problem :) .

      [9 MAX
  • 28 replies
    • conall88
      conall88
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      Joined: 02.01.2009 Posts: 1,715
      bump :O
    • Huseens
      Huseens
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      Joined: 02.07.2009 Posts: 709
      Graph doesn't say anything. Post stats!
    • Anger86
      Anger86
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      Joined: 17.08.2008 Posts: 511
      Every hand is a different story!
      You don't know if you will win that hand or lose it. Right?
      The same is about 100 hands. You can be a winner or a looser after 100 hands. Right?

      Now, let's put those 100 hands together ... 100+100+100+...+100 .,
      where you win something and lose something. But you can't expect to say where it will go (graph) or how it will go.

      Instead, concentrate on how are you playing from each position. Do you play to much from blinds or smthg.

      "Care for the decisions and money will care for itself."
      /The Poker Mindset (or smthg)/

      P.S. Although good thing to see in the grapfs is that EV line is higher, than $ line. Anything else is bullshit!
    • MrMardyBum
      MrMardyBum
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      Joined: 14.03.2009 Posts: 2,206
      A player doing the daily grind will pretty much always run under the EV line as they should generally be always entering every pot allin with the best hand.
    • Tampaloeres81
      Tampaloeres81
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      Joined: 08.03.2009 Posts: 1,416
      Originally posted by MrMardyBum
      A player doing the daily grind will pretty much always run under the EV line as they should generally be always entering every pot allin with the best hand.
      ?????

      1. Being favourite doesnt mean 100% success and so isnt the EV (more like 55-45).

      2. Good players will get their money in good against the range of the villain. This doesnt mean +EV against the actual hand.

      IF all evens out, also the daily grinder should run as EV.

      T.
    • taavi1337
      taavi1337
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      Joined: 29.05.2009 Posts: 2,920
      Originally posted by MrMardyBum
      A player doing the daily grind will pretty much always run under the EV line as they should generally be always entering every pot allin with the best hand.
      indeed, wtf?? everbody runs exactly on the EV line in the long run
    • NightFrostaSS
      NightFrostaSS
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      Joined: 25.10.2008 Posts: 5,255
      Originally posted by taavi1337
      Originally posted by MrMardyBum
      A player doing the daily grind will pretty much always run under the EV line as they should generally be always entering every pot allin with the best hand.
      indeed, wtf?? everbody runs exactly on the EV line in the long run
      no to both
    • conall88
      conall88
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      Joined: 02.01.2009 Posts: 1,715
      heres stats for 4NL by itself, which is currently all I care about :

      Leak Buster- Overall



      Leak Buster- Position

    • MrMardyBum
      MrMardyBum
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      Joined: 14.03.2009 Posts: 2,206
      Originally posted by Tampaloeres81
      Originally posted by MrMardyBum
      A player doing the daily grind will pretty much always run under the EV line as they should generally be always entering every pot allin with the best hand.
      ?????

      1. Being favourite doesnt mean 100% success and so isnt the EV (more like 55-45).

      2. Good players will get their money in good against the range of the villain. This doesnt mean +EV against the actual hand.

      IF all evens out, also the daily grinder should run as EV.

      T.
      Er exactly my point if you enter the pot behind, then you are 0 EV (or minus any cards you can hit)... If you enter it ahead and get drawn out on then that's below EV. Hence most grinders will be below EV. Because most of them will be getting it in good and not sucking out.

      My point stands.
    • NightFrostaSS
      NightFrostaSS
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      Joined: 25.10.2008 Posts: 5,255
      I'm not much of a stats person but:

      You are veeeeeery nitty. I think it's probably fine not to 3bet much at nl4 but your vpip and pfr are too low for a 6max game.

      Your positional stats doesn't look good too, you don't use out your positional advantage, try opening MUCH more hands from CO & BTN. You should be playing looser in BB than is SB and you are too loose in SB already. Postflop cbet more frequently too.

      Obs samplesize is too small too. :)
    • Tampaloeres81
      Tampaloeres81
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      Joined: 08.03.2009 Posts: 1,416
      Originally posted by MrMardyBum
      Originally posted by Tampaloeres81
      Originally posted by MrMardyBum
      A player doing the daily grind will pretty much always run under the EV line as they should generally be always entering every pot allin with the best hand.
      ?????

      1. Being favourite doesnt mean 100% success and so isnt the EV (more like 55-45).

      2. Good players will get their money in good against the range of the villain. This doesnt mean +EV against the actual hand.

      IF all evens out, also the daily grinder should run as EV.

      T.
      Er exactly my point if you enter the pot behind, then you are 0 EV (or minus any cards you can hit)... If you enter it ahead and get drawn out on then that's below EV. Hence most grinders will be below EV. Because most of them will be getting it in good and not sucking out.

      My point stands.
      @OP sry for hijacking your thread...

      Lol.

      "If you enter it ahead and get drawn out on then that's below EV" Yes
      "Hence most grinders will be below EV" No
      "Because most of them will be getting it in good" Yes
      "and not sucking out" No - We all suckout

      Easy example:
      You have KK, vilain has AA. Preflop AI. (200xbb in the pot)
      So its like 18% vs 82% (from head). Your EV is 36xbb (which is 82xbb -EV in the long run)
      If you loose (mostly the case), you run 36xbb UNDER EV.
      Villain wins 200xbb which is 36xbb ABOVE EV.

      When you don't suckout villain at all, he will run far above EV and not AS EV.

      We "suckout" on villain every 1 out of 5. The same as every donkey playing poker. Resulting in villain to run as EV.

      Only when you are drawing dead, you have zero EV (eg losing the whole pot every time).

      T.
    • MrMardyBum
      MrMardyBum
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      Joined: 14.03.2009 Posts: 2,206
      And most the time Villain isn't going to have that range, and you are going to be facing looser opponents because that's the ones that we all seek out.

      If you have AcKd and villain has KcQd, shove on a K high raindow flop, and he spikes two pair on the turn, you will be majorly -EV. And that's the more likely spot a decent player would find himself in. Because they go in with the best hands, not the worst as you chose in your example.

      Take the preflop blinds and bets out the way because I really can't be arsed to be that detailed.

      And you manage to get it all in here for 100BB's and get called your EV is roughly +174 BB's If a queen now falls you will be -EV for that situation. Or if he had suited cards and hit runner runner flush/straight etc. etc.

      Generally you will be ahead when ALL IN if you are a decent player, so your EV for winning will only be slightly less than your actual EV, I.e say we go on to win the hand above our EV would be -26BB's from what we actually won.

      I see what you mean about IF it all evens out in one way, but it never will, you have a very rare chance of even playing exactly the same hand twice, let alone enough times for just the above scenario to even it's self out.
    • Tampaloeres81
      Tampaloeres81
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      Joined: 08.03.2009 Posts: 1,416
      Originally posted by MrMardyBum
      If you have AcKd and villain has KcQd, shove on a K high raindow flop, and he spikes two pair on the turn, you will be majorly -EV. And that's the more likely spot a decent player would find himself in. Because they go in with the best hands, not the worst as you chose in your example.
      You will be majorly +EV in this case. Just that he wins this time doesnt care at all and doenst change the EV at the time of the AI.... :f_confused: Yes you do run under EV this hand. He just hit his 3-outer, so what. You should be glad to get in this kind of spots. Just dont expect to win all of them and think that is the EV-line. The next hand you win with KKvsAA and your back at your total EV.

      I just choose a simple example, and give us the worst hand to let you know, we also suckout 1 out of 5. It's all the same idea.

      T
    • MrMardyBum
      MrMardyBum
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      Joined: 14.03.2009 Posts: 2,206
      I meant under EV not minus, I apologise. And no need to be rude, I expect you knew exactly what I meant. Most situations are not going to be PP over PP and are not going to be clear cut enough to even themselves out.
    • conall88
      conall88
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      Joined: 02.01.2009 Posts: 1,715
      Originally posted by NightFrostaSS
      I'm not much of a stats person but:

      You are veeeeeery nitty. I think it's probably fine not to 3bet much at nl4 but your vpip and pfr are too low for a 6max game.

      Your positional stats doesn't look good too, you don't use out your positional advantage, try opening MUCH more hands from CO & BTN. You should be playing looser in BB than is SB and you are too loose in SB already. Postflop cbet more frequently too.

      Obs samplesize is too small too. :)
      THIS IS 9 MAX! for 9 max I don't think my stats are bad. HEM has me filtered as an ABC player, and thats what I am for the most part :f_biggrin:
    • Tampaloeres81
      Tampaloeres81
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      Joined: 08.03.2009 Posts: 1,416
      Originally posted by MrMardyBum
      I meant under EV not minus, I apologise. And no need to be rude, I expect you knew exactly what I meant. Most situations are not going to be PP over PP and are not going to be clear cut enough to even themselves out.
      Sry if I seem rude. It wasnt my intention.


      Most situations are not going to be PP over PP and are not going to be clear cut enough to even themselves out.
      I hear what you say. But that isnt necessary. There will be a other situation where you will suckout which will only happen in x hands.

      T.
    • Tampaloeres81
      Tampaloeres81
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      Joined: 08.03.2009 Posts: 1,416
      Originally posted by MrMardyBum
      I meant under EV not minus, I apologise. And no need to be rude, I expect you knew exactly what I meant. Most situations are not going to be PP over PP and are not going to be clear cut enough to even themselves out.
      I have been running +EV and seriously above EV for some 10k hands...
    • conall88
      conall88
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      Joined: 02.01.2009 Posts: 1,715
      stop hijacking the thread plz. if you want to go off topic, start another!
    • ihufa
      ihufa
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      Joined: 18.03.2008 Posts: 3,323
      biggest leak on the graph is posting it after 6k hands
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