[NL20-NL50] NL 50, AKs, Bet sizing.

    • Anger86
      Joined: 17.08.2008 Posts: 511
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.25/$0.5 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)

      Known players:
      BU (Hero):

      Preflop: Hero is BU with K, A.
      MP2 raises to $1.75, 2 folds, Hero raises to $6.00, 2 folds, MP2 calls $4.25.

      Flop: ($12.75) Q, 7, J (2 players)
      MP2 checks, Hero bets $6.50, MP2 calls $6.50.

      Turn: ($25.75) 3 (2 players)
      MP2 checks, Hero bets $15.00, MP2 folds, Hero gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $25.75.

      Villain stats:
      Hands: 330
      VPIP/PFR: 30/20
      AF: 1.8
      Fold to cbet: 36
      AF%_R: 24

      I think that straight forward play here is the best - bet/bet/bet.
      Now I think, that my cbet is too small. Villain has Fold to cbet: 36.
      So, that's probably a little more value to bet 9$.

      And I guess, that checking turn doesn't make any sense,
      as he won't bluff enough on the River = AF%_R: 24

      Some other notes:
      - /cc AJo OOP Vs 2plr
      - /cc K3s IP Vs UTG - plays TP = cD (calling down)
      - LCD (loose calldowns)
      - SVB (strong value bets - so I missed one on the flop)
      - /c cbet /f T bet (this one is good to exploit,
      because Fold to FLOP cbet: 36; Fold to TURN cbet: 57)

      As I said previously, then the best line is bet/bet/bet,
      but question is how much to bet:
      If I don't have a huge hand (but fairly safe bourd),
      then I think, betting 1/2PSB on the flop and the turn is OK.

      But, when I have a strong hand/draw,
      I could bet 3/4 - 4/5 PSB on the flop, and 1/4 - 1/3 PSB Vs this player.

      AT this limit, he wouldn't even notice the difference between the betsizing.

  • 2 replies
    • Dublimax
      Joined: 22.11.2008 Posts: 2,233
      As you said 9 on the flop looks better to me.
      I would have checked turn to try to induce a bet on the river.

      But it is a tough spot to get paid off since you have shown so much aggresion.
      I think that the only way to get some money is to pretend that you didn;'t like the turn card.
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      since you don´t have to protect your hand and that bet size is quite scary for him I think 9-10$ is better
      This way you have enough money left to shove river