Variance in Micros?

    • SickAtHome
      SickAtHome
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.05.2010 Posts: 465
      I started playing poker a little more than a month ago, but now, I'm experiencing some variance ($0.1/0.2 FL).
      Here's my graph:


      I mean, two days ago I had a profit of +$6.37 making 17.31 BB/ 100 hands. Yesterday was my biggest loss, going -$9.85 for -10.66 BB/ 100 hands. However, today I just went on a roll hitting +$15.12 at 15.51 BB/ 100 hands.

      First, I'm away most of August, and I needed quite a few VPPs to clear my $50 starting capital.
      The last week or so, I decided to take advantage of the Micromania increased VPP benefits at Micro FR FL tables. Before I was multitabling 4 at a time, but now I'm at 8+.
      The VPPs came in really quick, so now I'm at 375 VPPs, and need 125 more.
      (On a side note, I bought the $6 bonus JUST in time!)

      I review my hands in the forum, and by myself after most of my sessions.
      Yesterday's downswing I had played according to odds and outs, I just didn't hit them. While today, I felt like every AK hit, every 99 stayed an overpair and it just went well overall.

      So my question is: Is Fixed Limit supposed to have this much variance? (or is it something else, bad play etc.?)
      Also, any advice on my play, shorthand or no, limits, personal experience, whatever?
  • 8 replies
    • gape0000
      gape0000
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.08.2007 Posts: 628
      Your sample size is way too small to make any conclusions .

      Regarding the swings there was a guy on 2+2 that had a 650BB downswing over a period of around 15k hands while his overall win rate at Party on 10/20$ 6max tables was around 3BB/100 over 500,000 hands which included this huge downswing.
    • Waiboy
      Waiboy
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.09.2008 Posts: 4,877
      Study more, look at results less (or learn to understand that in the medium term they don't mean much - positive or negative) IMO.
    • ihufa
      ihufa
      Gold
      Joined: 18.03.2008 Posts: 3,323
      maybe if you stopped minraising all the time...
    • madorjan
      madorjan
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.11.2009 Posts: 5,561
      Hi!

      On Pokerstars the FLFR 0,1/0,2 limit is much much stronger limit, than 0,05/0,1. I was a winning player at 0,05/0,1. I moved up onto 0,1/0,2 and there were just nits and TAGs everywhere, and the table selection was really hard also. There are 1/4th the fishes, and much much more reg. Not good regs, usually nits, but not the players that give you their money by themselves. So I think you can have a bit larger variance, because your winrate will be much lower there. Altough it's not a big sample size you have there. (When I moved up to 0,1/0,2 FR I lost 100BBs in 1k hands with playing my A game, so...)

      I solved my problem by moving to SH, but I'd suggest you that only if you have a very good postflop game, and also after watching many many videos! There are no really good players at SH games on this limit, so if nothing's working on FR, maybe give it a try. Although I must say that the variance will be much bigger too!
    • SickAtHome
      SickAtHome
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.05.2010 Posts: 465
      @ gape0000
      It feels like plenty to me :P I'm just looking to see if there's any early telltale signs that I'm doing something wrong.
      I'm hit -100 BB in one small session so I got scared. :(

      @ Waiboy
      I've read all the articles here that I can read, and I've watched around a dozen videos. Problem is, I've never deposited money into any games. (I've played some real-cash economy MMOs and I always play from nothing, and withdraw when I'm done) So I need the $50 and I don't want to lose it all trying to clear the VPPs.

      @ ihufa
      What do you mean, am I doing something wrong preflop?
      And in FL, isn't a minraise about all you can do?

      @ madorjan
      Thanks! I'll take a look at shorthanded play, but right now I'm focused on clearing another 125 VPPs without destroying my BR :)
      Like you, I lost 100 BBs in less than 1k hands yesterday so I'd like to avoid a repeat.
      I'm hoping to move to Full Tilt after for some rakeback so maybe that'll help. (I've heard it's a bit fishier there too)
    • madorjan
      madorjan
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.11.2009 Posts: 5,561
      Hi!
      I've played on FTP for a little while, I wouldn't say it's fishier, also there are far too less tables there. Of course the rakeback helps.:)
    • Waiboy
      Waiboy
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.09.2008 Posts: 4,877
      Originally posted by SickAtHome
      @ Waiboy
      I've read all the articles here that I can read, and I've watched around a dozen videos. Problem is, I've never deposited money into any games. (I've played some real-cash economy MMOs and I always play from nothing, and withdraw when I'm done) So I need the $50 and I don't want to lose it all trying to clear the VPPs.
      You have two problems.. the short term problem of saving your $50 will be up to luck if you don't feel you have anything to gain from study tbh. The long term problem will depend how much time you spend studying and improving and pretty much nothing else.

      BTW read the articles again, and make sure you know this one back to front ASAP if not sooner.
    • SickAtHome
      SickAtHome
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.05.2010 Posts: 465
      Originally posted by Waiboy
      You have two problems.. the short term problem of saving your $50 will be up to luck if you don't feel you have anything to gain from study tbh. The long term problem will depend how much time you spend studying and improving and pretty much nothing else.
      Ergh, I've read all the articles and print out all the useful handouts for everyday play. Whenever I'm eating anything and have spare time, I watch videos. But I think practical play is very important too.