[NL20-NL50] NL25 SH, 88, set on all spade flop

    • Gugi19
      Gugi19
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.01.2010 Posts: 325
      Full Tilt - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      BB: $35.69
      UTG: $24.62
      CO: $25.00
      Hero (BTN): $25.51
      SB: $15.66

      SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

      Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has 8:club: 8:diamond:

      fold, CO raises to $0.85, Hero calls $0.85, SB calls $0.75, BB calls $0.60

      Flop: ($3.40, 4 players) 8:spade: Q:spade: 2:spade:
      SB checks, BB bets $2.00, fold, Hero raises to $7.00, fold, BB raises to $12.00, Hero raises to $24.66 and is all-in, BB calls $12.66

      Villain is pretty much unknown, 22/16/inf but only 32 hands.

      When he donks in 4-way pot I thought he is on FD and I have raised for protection and value and his 3-bet still looks like FD so I think shove here is ok?

      Maybe my firs raise isn't big enough, maybe 8-9$ or insta shove?
  • 4 replies
    • BattleHunter
      BattleHunter
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 12.11.2009 Posts: 874
      Here he either has a super small flush that cannot afford to see another :spade: or as u say is on a good-ish fd. Actually lets look at his range for donking here:

      22 - 3 combos, makes good sense
      QQ - im ruling it out, because I would expect a somewhat tag-ish person to sqz them oop in fear of a K or A hitting.
      Q8hh - 1 combo, I'd figure when he saw a steal and 2 callers he could definitely call with that kind of a hand because of "pot odds". Same argument could be made for Q2, but I think its less likely.
      KK/AA, AK dont make much sense, they could make some part of his range, but I'm expecting him to raise those pre as well.

      Now lets see what flushes could he have. 1st of all, he coulz ez call with A3-A9ss, but those are pretty much never donking the flop. Pretty much same goes for random Kxss.

      34ss, 45ss, 56ss, 67ss, 9Tss, TJss
      35ss, 57ss, 9Jss

      I think he would be less inclined to "protect" a J hi flush, as its the 3rd nuts, but he could very well do it. I also put in some gappers for the heck of it (they also make at least some sense). Those are the hands that dominate us and make sens to "protect" them the way he does --- 9 combos


      now we'd really like more reads about the other hands we're going to put him on, but with our limited info we can't assume that he always squeezes AQs//o so its another possibility here.

      AsQx makes sense to be played this way and there are 3 combos of it.
      AxQx is another possible hand, but I don't think he's min 3betting it like that, so I'm going to leave it out for now.

      As you pointed out, he coulz easily be doing it just on the NFD or a pair + nfd, although I don't expect him to often call with preflop with low offsuited aces. Maybe As9+ (essentially As9x, AsTx, AsJx) is a reasonable range to put him on for calling preflop and going with this action.


      Ok. Stopping here and putting my thoughts in poker stove gives us more than great equity. Even if we believe that for some reason he decided to play donk/3b with a strong made flush, we still have well above 50% eq and once we raise him on the flop (which is indeed the correct move) we're happy to get it in.

      (edit: 50% equity is if we put in his range 10 made flushes, 22 and Qh8h, so still a profitable shove considering the dead money)
    • AninIII
      AninIII
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.07.2008 Posts: 944
      Hi,

      when a relative competent looking villain donks on that board versus 3 than you are nearly always against a made flush. After he min3-bets it's clear. After that you have to push and hope for your full house outs.

      What did he have?

      Best regards,
      Anin
    • Gugi19
      Gugi19
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.01.2010 Posts: 325
      Originally posted by AninIII
      when a relative competent looking villain donks on that board versus 3 than you are nearly always against a made flush.
      Well I agree, but also I think that made flush would donk out bigger unless it is A or K high flush and on this limits villains love to slow play nuts.

      Originally posted by AninIII
      What did he have?

      Results follow:

      Hero, (8c 8d).
      BB, (As Jd).
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Originally posted by BattleHunter
      Here he either has a super small flush that cannot afford to see another :spade: or as u say is on a good-ish fd. Actually lets look at his range for donking here:

      22 - 3 combos, makes good sense
      QQ - im ruling it out, because I would expect a somewhat tag-ish person to sqz them oop in fear of a K or A hitting.
      Q8hh - 1 combo, I'd figure when he saw a steal and 2 callers he could definitely call with that kind of a hand because of "pot odds". Same argument could be made for Q2, but I think its less likely.
      KK/AA, AK dont make much sense, they could make some part of his range, but I'm expecting him to raise those pre as well.

      Now lets see what flushes could he have. 1st of all, he coulz ez call with A3-A9ss, but those are pretty much never donking the flop. Pretty much same goes for random Kxss.

      34ss, 45ss, 56ss, 67ss, 9Tss, TJss
      35ss, 57ss, 9Jss

      I think he would be less inclined to "protect" a J hi flush, as its the 3rd nuts, but he could very well do it. I also put in some gappers for the heck of it (they also make at least some sense). Those are the hands that dominate us and make sens to "protect" them the way he does --- 9 combos


      now we'd really like more reads about the other hands we're going to put him on, but with our limited info we can't assume that he always squeezes AQs//o so its another possibility here.

      AsQx makes sense to be played this way and there are 3 combos of it.
      AxQx is another possible hand, but I don't think he's min 3betting it like that, so I'm going to leave it out for now.

      As you pointed out, he coulz easily be doing it just on the NFD or a pair + nfd, although I don't expect him to often call with preflop with low offsuited aces. Maybe As9+ (essentially As9x, AsTx, AsJx) is a reasonable range to put him on for calling preflop and going with this action.


      Ok. Stopping here and putting my thoughts in poker stove gives us more than great equity. Even if we believe that for some reason he decided to play donk/3b with a strong made flush, we still have well above 50% eq and once we raise him on the flop (which is indeed the correct move) we're happy to get it in.

      (edit: 50% equity is if we put in his range 10 made flushes, 22 and Qh8h, so still a profitable shove considering the dead money)
      +1
      without really big explanation players would lead get all-in with A high flushdraw, pair+flushdraws and 22 which is enough to raise flop and shove after he 3-bets
      nh