[NL2-NL10] check raise by AF 7 opponent

    • cutegoldfish
      Joined: 19.11.2009 Posts: 4,335
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.05/$0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)

      Known players:
      BU (Hero):

      Preflop: Hero is BU with A, A.
      UTG2 calls $0.10, 4 folds, Hero raises to $0.50, SB folds, BB calls $0.40, UTG2 calls $0.40.

      Flop: ($1.55) 4, 3, J (3 players)
      BB checks, UTG2 checks, Hero bets $0.80, BB raises to $2.00, UTG2 folds, Hero calls $1.20.

      Turn: ($5.55) 9 (2 players)
      BB bets $3.00, Hero calls $3.00.

      River: ($11.55) 5 (2 players)
      BB bets $4.50, Hero calls $4.50.

      Final Pot: $20.55.

      opponent is known to be 11/9 with AF 7. i know that a check-raise usually means a set, but does the AF indicate that he is likely to do that also with overpairs and top pairs? with that read on the flop that hes more likely full of top pairs and overpairs, i decided to call all the way to the river. i even wanted to raise the turn to get it in.
  • 2 replies
    • Duudalinja
      Joined: 21.12.2009 Posts: 1,030
      How many hands has he played? AF7 is a lot, so if he's so aggro postflop I think he would raise QQ+ pre and that leads to conclusion I may fold the turn. Folding flop seems too weak for me, but only hand we beat and that may barrel here is AJ, but that seems too thin for me to call.
    • MaestroOfZerg
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510

      Two different points:

      - first I'd suggest you take another look at exactly how the AF stat works. It doesn't account for people folding. It's like a ratio of (raise%+bet%)/call%, so if you never just call, meaning you fastplay your strong hands and you just pitch everything weak, you can have infinite AF.

      - second, as far as tags are concerned, spikes in AF usually won't be indicative of them check/raising top pairs. They just don't. Higher AF just means he might sometimes be semi-bluffing/pure-bluffing more than other tags, or that he's simply playing very very straightforward as indicated in first paragraph.

      So as far as the play in this hand is concerned, since a 11/9 usually won't even show up with 65 preflop, rarely Jx as well, on the flop there are no draws he could have and he's not doing that with Jx, ever. The single most likely hands for a tag to have after calling a raise out of position are pocket pairs preflop.

      So either he's pure-bluffing sometimes with something like 22, which is possible given how dry the board is and his high AF, but unlikely since it's 3-way and he's tight, or he has exactly what he's repping and you're 2-outing, making AA no better than a hand like ~54 against his range.

      Depending on how often you think he can bluff you can just fold the flop, call flop and fold to turn aggression, or call him down. Personally I have no solid reason to think he's full of shit and leveling yourself into looking up tight players is what loses you money most of the time, so I'd dump it and move on.

      Hope it helps.