[NL2-NL10] NL10 AA bad play

    • Duudalinja
      Joined: 21.12.2009 Posts: 1,030
      $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
      5 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
      opp: 36/36/17.6/2.9 over 60 hands

      UTG ($14.40)
      CO ($13.30)
      BTN ($10.27)
      SB ($10.10)
      Hero ($13.99)

      Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 5 players) Hero is BB A:heart: A:diamond:
      2 folds, BTN calls $0.10, SB raises to $0.40, Hero raises to $1.25, 1 fold, SB calls $0.85

      Flop: K:spade: 10:spade: K:diamond: ($2.60, 2 players)
      SB checks, Hero checks

      Turn: J:heart: ($2.60, 2 players)
      SB bets $1.95, Hero calls $1.95

      River: 5:diamond: ($6.50, 2 players)
      SB bets $4.90, Hero calls $4.90

      opp: 36/36/2.9 over 60 hands

      Not much doubt bout preflop, but party starts on flop. That flop seemed so damn doomed to me I just checked back with intention to call down turn and see river action. Now when looking back he may have draws here I could charge as Kx is really small part of his range, so I think I should bet flop, but I didn't do it as I was somehow afraid of being raised as that would force me to feel Kx too often.
      So calling down turn as planned, but worst thing was I almost snapcalled river bet without much hesitation. Yes, I showed weakness by checking back the flop and calling turn so he may bluff here, but there are so damn hands beating me I think this was bad call overall against this bet.

  • 3 replies
    • minihulk22
      Joined: 05.09.2009 Posts: 140
      In my donkey oppinion , that seems a good flop for u , only a K can crush you here , after you showed weakness on the flop , he could bet with any Tx , Jx , he is 36 vp he is very loose .
    • EmanuelC16
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,909
      I agree with minihulk22 here. He will bet Tx,Jx,QQ, maybe even 99 after you have shown weakness. I think river is close but I call most of the times. It's just that this whole tough spot could have been avoided if you cbet that flop. You would have a better idea of where you stand.
    • MaestroOfZerg
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510

      36/36 over 60 hands doesn't mean much except that he's likely some reg and not a random fish, the smaller the vpip/pfr gap the more likely you're up against somebody decent, with some exceptions. The fish coldcall way too often to have such stats after 60 hands.

      Just c-bet the flop once you get there, there is value in a bet and it's just overall easy to play that way.

      As played on the t urn I kinda disagree that he will bet all of Tx/Jx/QQ. We know he should bet Jx/QQ on the turn, whether or not he will make the right play is another story. Lots of people still go into a weak check/call mode with good but not great hands, very few players at nl10 will actually valuebet thin enough in such spots. You still have to call of course as he could have spades and your hand looks like Tx so he could try and bluff at it, he maybe valuebet Jx/QQ too. But the tighter/weaker your opponent the worse it looks already, since AK/AQ/JJ/TT are all plausible hands for him to play like that preflop.

      On the river he's not valuebetting Jx/QQ anymore, so you have to weight the chances of him double barreling busted spades against the chances that he's just easily valuebetting whatever monster he happened to have, so you're bluff-catching. Option #2 will usually trump option #1 regardless of his having aggressive looking stats, just because it's a 3-bet pot so people don't screw around and it's way easier for him to call a 3bet with AK/AQ/TT/JJ than to show up with two random spades. I'd fold at that point.

      Hope it helps.