[NL2-NL10] AKs at NL2 FR

    • Alficor1
      Alficor1
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.06.2010 Posts: 7,291
      Stage #C119411227: Holdem No Limit $0.02 - 2010-08-05 10:09:03 (ET)
      Table: CORONADO RD (Real Money) Seat #2 is the dead dealer
      Seat 3 - EESAENG ($3.64 in chips)
      Seat 4 - ZILVERUI ($5.14 in chips)
      Seat 5 - THEO44 ($1.90 in chips)
      Seat 6 - MILKY1602 ($3.11 in chips)
      Seat 7 - TAKEIT44 ($1.81 in chips)
      Seat 8 - ALFICOR ($2.49 in chips)
      Seat 9 - KOBECK1001 ($0.77 in chips)
      Seat 1 - RPSPESP ($2.51 in chips)
      EESAENG - Posts small blind $0.01
      ZILVERUI - Posts big blind $0.02
      *** POCKET CARDS ***
      Dealt to ALFICOR A :diamond: K :diamond:
      THEO44 - Folds
      MILKY1602 - Folds
      TAKEIT44 - Folds
      ALFICOR - Raises $0.06 to $0.06
      KOBECK1001 - Folds
      RPSPESP - Folds
      EESAENG - Calls $0.05
      ZILVERUI - Folds
      *** FLOP *** K :club: 7 :diamond: 4 :diamond:
      EESAENG - Checks
      ALFICOR - Bets $0.09
      EESAENG - Calls $0.09
      *** TURN *** K :club: 7 :diamond: 4 :diamond: 2 :club:
      EESAENG - Checks
      ALFICOR - Bets $0.16
      EESAENG - Raises $0.74 to $0.74
      ALFICOR - All-In(Raise) $2.18 to $2.34
      EESAENG - Calls $1.60
      *** RIVER *** K :club: 7 :diamond: 4 :diamond: 2 :club: 5 :heart:
      *** SHOW DOWN ***
      EESAENG - Shows 4 :spade: 4 :heart: (Three of a kind, fours)
      ALFICOR - Shows A :diamond: K :diamond: (One pair, kings)
      EESAENG Collects $4.75 from main pot

      The guy is 31/2.. i thought he might have worse king, or even queens (this play is quite common at these stakes), so i was pretty sure that i have the best hand + i had the nut flush draw.. do you think it was ok to go broke there?
  • 4 replies
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      Looks standard. I mean, sure trips have you beat but even in that situation you have the nut flush draw and your TPTK isn't always behind. Wp imo!
    • Alficor1
      Alficor1
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.06.2010 Posts: 7,291
      Thanks for ur opinion mate. :)
    • AmAsu
      AmAsu
      Basic
      Joined: 02.08.2010 Posts: 33
      I really really think this is way less trivial than people tend to think. Sure, if you're on the flop there's nothing to discuss, as you have tons of equity by the time the last raise gets there that you can't throw your hand away even if he's showing you the set.

      On the turn though, it's really not the case. I'll try to detaliate without getting lost along the way :)

      First, when you get called, how often do you think you're ahead, honestly? I know you're hoping for some retarded K there, but that sooo much of a long shot when a player who's raising 2% preflop wakes up with a c/r on the turn... I'd say the only hands you're beating when you get called are combos like A4cc or 78cc.

      So when you're getting called it's pretty sure you're beat. That means that when you're raising you're only making money when he folds, not when he calls. So now the million dollar question - how often does he have to fold for your push to be +EV? The turn is especially bad for you in this situation, because you can't even consider him having 2 pair (and not a set) - for example, if the turn was a J you might put him on KJ also so now you'd have 12 outs instead of the usual 9. So how often does he have to fold for you to show profit? Well, a shocking 50%! What that means is, out of the times he's doing that, he has to fold half the times for your shove to be +EV!

      So, considering you're always beaten when called, your push has to work (i.e. make him fold) 50% of the time! Let's say he does that move with some combos that you beat when called. Even now I stil don't think the folding requirement drops too much from that 50%. Let even say the req drops to 25% - what that means is 1 out of 4 times the villain wakes up and makes that move with some retarded random hand. And again, he's a passive villain which means c/r is bad for you!

      Sorry for the long post, but I'm really trying to make this as clear as possible..

      Another thing to consider - just because you have a combo so strong, along with great showdown value, doesn't mean you're always putting it in. That's because of the board and the villain. Consider the same stacks, but against a villain whose more c/r happy. Now you have A5cc and the board is AdJc9cTd. In this case, if he wakes up with that c/r there's a lot more stuff you're beating - combo draws with a Q or a 8 - and a lot of two pairs - against which you have 5 more outs besides your flush draw outs :)

      What I'm trying to say is the board (along with the type of the villain) makes it hard for you to be ahead or have more than 9 outs, unlike in the example I gave above.

      I realize in the heat of the moment you're instinctively thinking "holy fuk I have TPTK with nut flush draw, yay, push!!!", but I don't think it's that trivial because not all TP+combo are created equal.

      So if a push is not good (as it requires the villain to fold almost 50% of the times), then is a call better? You're getting like 2.5:1 for your nut flush draw and a lot of implieds, precisely because he likely has a set. So you can safely call and evaluate on the river, you having position making your job easier.

      Sorry for the looooong post but I'm sure this is something that a lot of players really don't think these situations through (offline, not in the heat of the moment) and just take it "push, you have nut flush draw etc etc"

      Cheers!

      DISCLAIMER: I realize this may well be retarded just because it's 2NL and people make funny things. But at least the idea behind it should be clear.
    • MaestroOfZerg
      MaestroOfZerg
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510
      Hi,


      I don't think this is retarded at all. Most people at microstakes tend to be polar opposites, either they're tag regulars playing ~14/13/2 and not doing anything wild, or they're ~60/1/0 guys with just a call button and nothing else. Sometimes you encounter some crazy 45/33/5 guys just overall aggressive and sometimes random 25/10 players that play tight passive, but can spazz.

      So when you're up against that ~30/1, I do also think that talking about fold equity on the turn makes virtually no sense: you have none. The only questions are:

      - can you shove for value?

      - if not (meaning you're behind his raising range), do you have odds to draw to your flush?

      The answer to the first question is no, you don't even know if that passive guy would raise combodraws, most likely he'd never consider raising just a bare top pair either, but you're pretty sure he'd play a set or two pairs like that. And when you're up against mostly better made hands, it makes no sense to shove just because AdKd is a combo hand.

      As for the second question, since sometimes you have tainted flush outs against two pairs / sets, you only have 8 outs, which means you need 5:1 implied odds to make the call. $0.58 into $1.22 makes it ~2.1:1, so you need to get ~$1.5 more out of him on the river when you hit, basically his stack since he has $1.6 left. Against a nl2 player this is certainly doable since even on a diamond river he probably won't be able to fold even if you open jam the river into him. So I'd say go ahead and call to find your diamond out. If you have the slightest doubt that he'd call down on a diamond river, this likely becomes a fold.


      Hope it helps.