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[NL2-NL10] NL400 77 squeeze?

    • Tampaloeres81
      Tampaloeres81
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.03.2009 Posts: 1,416
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $4(BB) Replayer
      SB ($56.50)
      Hero ($80)
      UTG ($389)
      UTG+1 ($96.50)
      UTG+2 ($97.05)
      MP1 ($160)
      MP2 ($150)
      CO ($266)
      BTN ($133)

      Dealt to Hero 7:spade: 7:heart:

      fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, CO raises to $12, fold, SB calls $10

      CO 27/12 f3bet 67% but only 3 times. 134 hands
      SB is huuuuge fish l/c or calling raises with 80%.

      Would this be a good squeeze spot? SB will call 75%. So it is a flip which is ok with the dead money.
      I think the question is if CO folds enough. With only 134 hands are there any other stat usefull?

      T
  • 3 replies
    • noclaninator
      noclaninator
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.12.2008 Posts: 312
      Should be standard to shove here. Assuming 67% of the time that cutoff folds and that SB gets all the money in with 75% of hands here is your EV:

      67% of the time you go heads up vs the fish and take 62% of the pot for a +ev of $21 on average

      33% of the time CO calls. Let's say he calls 88+, AQ+. and fish will still call always and have top 75% of hands. Now you have

      27% of the main pot ($169.50) which is 45.77
      34% of the side pot ($47.00) which is $15.98
      For a total EV of $61.75 in this spot.

      67% of the time you win $21
      33% of the time you lose $18.25

      0.67 * $21 - 0.33 * $18.25
      = $14.07 - $6.02
      = +ev of $8.05

      2BB is a decent +ev so good shove if your assumptions are correct. Even if you are off it takes a lot to turn this into a -ev spot.
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      With 77+ you normally resteal against CO/BTN

      Now adding a Big Fish in the equation and I can safely say that with 77, you had a +EV spot since you got a big ++++++EV spot right now

      Nice hand if you shoved :)
      Best regards,
      Gerv
    • Tampaloeres81
      Tampaloeres81
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.03.2009 Posts: 1,416
      Hi,

      Thanks. Yes I shoved, CO folded and fish called A8s and he won :)

      T.