[NL20-NL50] NL 50 SH, deep, F - trips, R = push AI?

    • Anger86
      Joined: 17.08.2008 Posts: 511
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.25/$0.5 No-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)

      Known players:
      BU (Hero):

      Preflop: Hero is BU with A, 4.
      2 folds, Hero raises to $1.25, SB folds, BB calls $0.75.

      Flop: ($2.75) 4, 7, 4 (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $1.50, BB raises to $4.50, Hero calls $3.00.

      Turn: ($11.75) K (2 players)
      BB bets $7.00, Hero calls $7.00.

      River: ($25.75) 2 (2 players)
      BB bets $17.00, Hero raises to $59.30(All-In), BB calls $42.30.

      Villain's stats: (Kind of an ABC guy)
      Hands: 367
      VPIP/PFR: 25/20
      AF: 2.9
      3bet: 4.4 %
      SD/SD$: 22/82


      As you see, then we are deep (about 150 BB).

      He 3bets 4.4% of his hands from BB - 2% of hands.
      Then - he doesn't play QQ+ or AK.
      He could be defending: KJ+, 22-JJ, smthg.

      His 3bet on this flop could be:
      Over-pairs, such as TT, JJ - although I think
      he would often call w/ these hands.
      I don't put him on a 4x too often or 77, but who knows:
      45s, 56s?

      So, I hope, this is a JJ or TT.
      My plan for a hand:
      to give him more rope.

      Still more rope.
      Now I think, he doesn't bet TT-JJ here too often.
      Actually I don't know what to put him on.
      What range do you put him on?
      Could he have 77, 4x, 5:heart: 6:heart: TT, JJ, KQ (for some kind of a reason)?

      Is this overplayed?
      I have to ask:
      which worse hands are going to call my shove?
      I think those could be:
      - boat w/ 77
      - trips turned into flush w/ 45s (in this case it is only one hand 4:heart: 5:heart:)
      - flush w/ 5:heart: 6:heart:

      I guess, it is not a shove, but a call.
      With a hope, that he barrels TT, JJ, KQ?
      So sick, I dont know what to put him on, if not a boat!
  • 1 reply
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      he can sometimes c/r you there with bluff and then backdoor with flush. Don´t think he calls too many 4x hands in his range, so it is either bluff or likely hand that you can´t beat that often
      So I´d also just call river