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[NL2-NL10] JJ with overcard on the flop

    • jbpatzer
      Joined: 22.11.2009 Posts: 6,955
      Villain was 47/10 and Fold to CBet 33% over 30 hands. I'm getting nearly 3-1 and reckon he's bluffing at least 25% of the time here.

      PokerStars - $0.25 NL (9 max) - Holdem - 8 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      MP: $4.65
      Hero (MP+1): $5.47
      CO: $7.33
      BTN: $10.64
      SB: $24.90
      BB: $5.00
      UTG: $5.00
      UTG+1: $15.94

      SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

      Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has J:club: J:heart:

      fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $1.00, fold, fold, SB calls $0.90, fold

      Flop: ($2.25, 2 players) Q:spade: 3:club: 7:heart:
      SB checks, Hero bets $1.40, SB calls $1.40

      Turn: ($5.05, 2 players) 4:diamond:
      SB checks, Hero checks

      River: ($5.05, 2 players) 5:heart:
      SB bets $3.25, Hero calls $3.07 and is all-in
  • 4 replies
    • Tampaloeres81
      Joined: 08.03.2009 Posts: 1,416

      This sample is way too small, but he does look fishy. Fold to CBet is still useless.

      Since the board is dry, I would cbet a bit smaller: 1/2 PSB so ~$1.20
      Since he called on this dry board I would c/f. you only beat 22, 88-TT, AK on the river and I doubt if he shoves these (I dont see SC's that call on the flop, maaaybe only 45 56 67 78 but you only beat 78).

    • jbpatzer
      Joined: 22.11.2009 Posts: 6,955
      I agree about the sample size, the cbet size, and I was going to fold to a turn bet, but I still think he's bluffing the river often enough for this to be profitable. I tell you what he had once a hand evaluator has delivered their verdict.
    • Gerv
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678

      I either cBet 50% or check back and get my value from spazziness overcards & lower pockets on the Turn/River

      If you decide to cBet you check back turn mostly and evaluate the River based on his tendencies + odds

      On the River SB bets obviously all 2pairs+, Qx and sometimes 88-TT, 7x and random KJ/AJ/AT hands

      So every 3 hands that you do not beat there has to be 1 in that you beat but I think it is safe to say because of your relatively high cBet size on the Flop, the bluffs are diminished

      Best regards,
    • jbpatzer
      Joined: 22.11.2009 Posts: 6,955
      OK. Thanks. Will have to take some time to digest that. He showed me 97o! :f_grin: