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[NL2-NL10] NL200SH straight on flop vs sucky turn

    • undercover82
      undercover82
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.12.2006 Posts: 813
      Known players: (for a description of vp$ip, pfr, ats, folded bb, af, wts, wsd or hands click here)  
      Position:
      Stack
      CO:
      $246.50
      Hero:
      $447.80
      MP3:
      $186.05

      1/2 No-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.8 by www.pokerstrategy.cc.

      Preflop: Hero is BB with 3:spade: , 5:spade:
      MP3 calls $2.00, CO calls $2.00, 2 folds, Hero checks.

      Flop: ($7.00) 4:diamond: , 7:diamond: , 6:heart: (3 players)
      Hero bets $6, MP3 folds, CO raises to $12.00, Hero raises to $37.00, CO calls $25.00.

      Turn: ($81.00) 8:diamond: (2 players)
      Hero bets $48, CO raises to $96.00, Hero folds.

      Final Pot: $225.00



      Opponent is totally unreal fish (lost 900$ on 250 hands in the table) and has bluffed on several occasions. He might be doing the turn minraise with a flush or a straight , but if i call i am gonna have a very ugly decision on river.
      He has total AF of around 1 , but thats mostly because he has very low PF AF. After the flop its average i guess. (close to 2)
  • 2 replies
    • Mystrapoker
      Mystrapoker
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.09.2007 Posts: 80
      (I assumed random cards in those calculation for your opponent, and wild cards on the turn and/or the river).

      Flop:

      Win:84.12%
      Tie : 6.08% -> equity=90.20%

      Hand ladder
      ---------------
      Stronger hands:
      Higher straights - 12 combinations : 1.11%

      The way he played I put him on a pocket pair, and he hits a set on the flop.
      Thats why he minraise you. You re-raise him and he just flat call.

      Did you see him play like that when he had a flush draw before?

      Turn:

      Win:68.48%
      Tie :13.98% -> equity=82.46%

      Hand ladder
      ---------------
      Straight flush - 1 combination : 0.10%
      Flush - 44 combinations : 4.25%
      Higher straight - 26 combinations : 2.51%

      You bet about half the pot, indicating weakness (because you had bet 3/4 of the pot on the flop, so that mean you had a weaker hand on the turn than you had on the flop). So he minraise you again, again I put him on a set.

      The opponent seem pretty passive. I think I would have check/called till the showdown to minimize the lose (even though I think you had him beat). And to get a read for cheap (determine what hand he went there with).

      Actually Im putting him on pocket sixes, one of which is a 6 of diamond. At the turn against that hand you are still favorite to win (about 52% vs 43%, 4.5% of split pot).

      Yeah I decided to reply to your post even I am just a silver member with little experience compared to you. Guess I like challenges.
    • Puschkin81
      Puschkin81
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.04.2006 Posts: 4,786
      @ Mystrapoker: Your opinion is always welcome. Even Platinum or Diamond member can learn a lot even from "lower ranked" players. Hand discussions help everyone: you and the other players. So keep it up!

      @ undercover82: If he is passive and raises you on the flop I would exclude a flushdraw and put him on a set, two pair or a better straight (85). That means you are still ahead on the turn and can go all the way with it.

      Good luck at the tables!
      Puschkin81