How many hands?

    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Hi,

      How many hands should I play at NL 25 SSS to find out if I´m beating the level or just having downswings and upswings. What should be average winning player rate BB/100? Is 0,95/100 hands good enough to move up to the next level.
  • 8 replies
    • Timor83
      Timor83
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.06.2007 Posts: 2,793
      You can never be statistically sure you're beating a limit consistently unless you have played something like 100k hands. You can calculate your true winrate with a 95% certainty when you've reached that number, but I can't find the formula for it anywhere. It was on 2+2, so try searching yourself if you'd like. I personally have 2 conditions for moving up a limit:

      - Have the proper bankroll (at least 25 full buy-ins)
      - Feel good about the plays I make at the limit I'm currently playing and winning overall, even if I l'm currently losing. The feel for this gets better as you move up the ladder.

      If you have less than 30k hands I'd recommend to keep practicing on the current limit with 0.95 though, because there's just too big a chance your winrate may be negative (I'm not saying it is, but it's a possibility you have to take into account).
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Thanks for advises. Pockertracker shows that I´ve played over 3 k hands. I try to play at least 20 k if my win rate is over 1,0, then it should be enough to make 450-500$ and move up to NL 50 SSS.
    • Puschkin81
      Puschkin81
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.04.2006 Posts: 4,786
      Hi Kaitz20!

      That plan sounds good to me.

      Good luck at the tables!
      Puschkin81
    • Timor83
      Timor83
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.06.2007 Posts: 2,793
      Interesting link:

      EDIT: Please stick to the board rules.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Thanks, interesting article.
    • Timor83
      Timor83
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.06.2007 Posts: 2,793
      I'm just posting a link to a very interesting article that happens to have advertising for other poker sites. I can see why this violates the board rules, but it's 1) not intentional and 2) nonetheless a great help for someone who wants answers to questions like this. I can't obviously copy/paste it without author reference either, so the least PS can do is come up with a similar article if you're censoring this information. My two cents.
    • Puschkin81
      Puschkin81
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.04.2006 Posts: 4,786
      I understand your point Timor83! But nevertheless it is advertisement for another affiliate site which is not allowed in this forum. We are consistently publishing new articles to improve your game. So don't worry: Sooner or later we will cover every strategic aspect of the game (at least we try to).

      Good luck at the tables!
      Puschkin81
    • Nunki
      Nunki
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2006 Posts: 865
      The bad news for almost anyone with a marginal win-rate who wishes to know if they are actually a winning player is that it is virtually impossible. The reason being is that it takes so long to play a significant number of hands that your usual game (eg.NL25 on Party) will be playing differently from your first hand-history to your last.

      The definitive win-rate thread on 2+2 was started by "Mr.Wookie" if anyone wants to search.