[NL2-NL10] AK preflop fold

    • mrschh
      mrschh
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.07.2010 Posts: 12
      I dont see what im beating in this situation, dont have any stats to determine if im dealing with fish or not but i dont like calling with AK in this spot. Wanted to get some opinions.

      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      Hero:
      $2,05
      MP2:
      $2,15
      BU:
      $14,31

      0,05/0,1 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Elephant 0.87 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is UTG2 with A:diamond: , K:diamond:
      UTG1 folds, Hero raises to $0,40, MP1 folds, MP2 calls $0,40, 2 folds, BU raises to $1,75, 3 folds, MP2 calls $1,35.

      Flop: ($4,05) 5:club: , J:club: , 8:spade: (2 players)
      MP2 checks, BU bets $1,00, MP2 calls $0,40 (All-In), BU gets uncalled bet back.

      Turn: ($4,85) 6:club:
      River: ($4,85) J:spade: (2 players)


      Final Pot: $4,85
  • 3 replies
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      but i dont like calling with AK in this spot.
      Why?

      You have already invested a substantial amount in the pot therefore you do not have to beat something often because the equation is different now. You have to be like 40% of the times good here or even less when it is a multiway all-in pot.

      Since A:dK is top2% of your range in NLHE, with what other hands besides KK-AA will you shove here? QQ/JJ is effectively the same equity hand as AKs

      So as played I would shove it in looking at the SHC it also says the same thing and I think it is handy to keep the SHC ready in case you do not know what to do

      Best regards,
      Gerv
    • mrschh
      mrschh
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.07.2010 Posts: 12
      Ive run the most likely scenarios through the equilator, and im slightly below 2:1 against all likely ranges that dont contain AA. and getting 2,5:1 from the pot. Maybe im giving these players too much credit. But im still learning so thanks for the feedback. And be sure to let me know if im delerious with my numbers :P

      How do you arrive at that conclusion that i need to be 40% good? I just wanna learn how to determine equity in multiway pots.

      Maybe i should cut down on the amount of tables (8 atm) so i can focus more on these things. Just wanna get enough points to clear the bonus so i can relax and take my time. Takes a while to clear 1000Summit Points at these stakes.

      Just a side note. When i saw that i was infact up against AA i felt a warm fuzzy feeling inside :P But i understand your point of it being unprofitable in the long run to fold here :)
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Considering a heads-up situation:

      You (20bb)
      Villain (100bb)
      SB (50bb)
      BB (50bb)

      You raises 4bb with A:dK, Villain reraises to 12bb, SB folds, BB folds.

      So when he reraises you. He is never folding to a shove of yours. So virtually he raises you all-in to 20bb

      So effectively your pot odds are: [20bb]+[1.5bb]+[4bb] against [16bb]. Mostly 1.5bb is the rake so effectively it is 24 against 16 or 1.5:1. Now 1/(1.5+1) = 0.4 or 40% exactly

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 42.806% 27.76% 15.05% 12834291 6955696.50 { AdKd }
      Hand 1: 57.194% 42.15% 15.05% 19486524 6955696.50 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
      Since you have 43% and you need 40% , you win 3% more so it is +EV to shove here

      In a mulitway pot of 3 you just add an extra 20bb into the equation. So you get [[24+20] // 16 => 2.75:1 => 1/3.75 = 26% equity