Rush statistics advice

    • Eco024
      Joined: 09.03.2009 Posts: 282
      After reviewing my Holdem Manager DB from a NL 0.02/0.05$ rush sample of 7000 hands I found the following data:

      CO steal success = 70 %
      BU steal success = 59 %
      SB steal success = 64 %

      General 3Bet = 3% (don't know how to get the 3Bet when I'm on CO/BU/SB..)

      CBet Flop sucess = 55 %
      Check Raised = 8%

      So... Can I conclude that stealing with any two from CO,BU,SB and CBeting on flop 100% times is profitable long run against the average player assuming no adaptation from them?

      Need some help tryng to exploit rush and with statistics, thanks!
  • 2 replies
    • MrMardyBum
      Joined: 14.03.2009 Posts: 2,206
      Long term profit = 50.1% or more. As long as you are not getting caught up in 3-bet pots when the blinds defend of course. And 7k hands although a nice amount it isn't enough to determine your long-term profits yet. But as long as you keep those success percentages over 50% you're doing fine IMO.
    • Eco024
      Joined: 09.03.2009 Posts: 282
      Well, thank you MrNardyBum. I found actually the CBET works even better when being in CU/BU because people call with crap in the BB. I usually fold to a 3Bet wich is a 3% of range or so (may be some day I get exploitable doing this, but not at this level I guess).

      I make my CBET 75% of the pot so no need for even a 50% of CBET success (even counting rake on the flop). And sometimes there is more than one caller.

      This was just to see if my math were correct.