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[NL2-NL10] NL10 - TPTK oop in flush/paired board x river bet

    • Kaabr
      Joined: 20.11.2009 Posts: 91
      Poker Stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - View hand 858073
      The Official Hand History Converter

      MP2: $9.95
      CO: $9.59
      BTN: $10.00
      Hero (SB): $9.62
      BB: $10.95
      UTG: $21.90
      UTG+1: $3.52
      MP1: $23.39

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is SB with Q :spade: A :heart:
      2 folds, MP1 calls $0.10, 3 folds, Hero raises to $0.60, BB calls $0.50, 1 fold

      Flop: ($1.30) 6 :heart: 3 :club: Q :club: (2 players)
      Hero bets $1, BB calls $1

      Turn: ($3.30) 6 :club: (2 players)
      Hero bets $2, BB calls $2

      River: ($7.30) 8 :heart: (2 players)
      Hero checks, BB bets $4.20, Hero calls $4.20

      BB 10/7/1.9 in 10k hands.
      27% wtsd, 57% w$sd

      7% call from blinds.

      Board: 6h 3c Qc 6c 8h

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 73.118% 69.89% 03.23% 65 3.00 { AhQs }
      Hand 1: 26.882% 23.66% 03.23% 22 3.00 { 22+, ATs+, KTs+, AQo+ }

      Could I fold to that almost half pot river bet?
  • 3 replies
    • minihulk22
      Joined: 05.09.2009 Posts: 140
      I think you could raise a little bit smaller to 0.5 c , being also out of position , but that's ok . On the flop you're line is fine extracting money from a FD or a weaker Qx . Also I like your bet on the turn , it's aggro and you have some FQ here . On the river it's good to c/f , he is just to nitty from the blinds , so I just give him credit for a big hand Flush/FH .
    • yeahyoung0312
      Joined: 16.12.2009 Posts: 340
      I would fold.

      A nit calls preflop OR IP. Given villain's VPIP and PFR he probably had a big suited A, need to see the 3bet percentage to tell though.

      On the flop you value bet $1 to prevent FD and he calls. Here you can pretty sure he is drawing to the NUT flush. Any AQ, overpair, or set of Qs would probably re-raise you here, given villain's AF of 1.9.

      On the turn the board is paired and the FD completes. Betting out is fine here. Half of the pot is probably enough for fold equity if villain had nothing. Villain's call looks like slow-playing a made flush.

      On the river you check and villain value bet. It just looks like a flush. The chance that villain is bluffing is VERY SMALL. A set of 6s probably would not bet out.

      PS: My experience is that the toughest situations are those offering you tempting calling odds + bluffcatcher opportunities, but at the same time demanding a significant size of stack. This looks just like one of them.
    • MaestroOfZerg
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510

      What it boils down to really is this: a 10/7 player is NOT valuebetting less than trips 6's on that river, if even that, and since he simply is not calling the flop with a naked big club and those are the only hands that would need to bluff on the river after calling the turn (he is NOT turning a made hand into a bluff), it doesn't really matter that the value hands that beat us are few, his bluffing hands are even fewer.

      I think it's a mandatory fold at stakes where nits simply don't mess around.

      Hope it helps.