[NL2-NL10] NL10 - KK, AJT monotone flop x shove

    • Kaabr
      Kaabr
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.11.2009 Posts: 91
      Poker Stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - View hand 858570
      The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

      MP1: $10.00
      MP2: $11.04
      CO: $4.00
      Hero (BTN): $9.96
      SB: $7.65
      BB: $10.00
      UTG: $15.63
      UTG+1: $10.15

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BTN with K :diamond: K :club:
      2 folds, MP1 calls $0.10, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0.60, SB calls $0.55, 1 fold, MP1 calls $0.50

      Flop: ($1.90) J :diamond: T :diamond: A :diamond: (3 players)
      SB bets $7.05 all in, MP1 folds, Hero ?


      Villain, 22/7 over 170 hands.


      With MP1's fold is it a easy call? ?(
  • 4 replies
    • yeahyoung0312
      yeahyoung0312
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.12.2009 Posts: 340
      A dumb play by SB. You can never tell exactly what villain had but you can be pretty sure that you are behind. Two pairs, straight, a set (which is less likely) are all possible. A big A probably would not push but who knows? A made flush is unlikely IMO, as usually people try to build the pot slowly with a made flush.

      Against 2 pairs or a set you had 15 clean outs: 9 for the nut FD, 3Qs for the straight and 2Ks for the set. But against a straight you only had 9 outs for the FD and 2Qs to draw to a split. The odds you were given were about 5.3:4.

      It's a close decision. Stats help here. If villain's a maniac or a fish I would call. If villain's a reg then it's tough. You can throw a coin to decide :)
    • minihulk22
      minihulk22
      Global
      Joined: 05.09.2009 Posts: 140
      villain seems to call w/ a lot and his marginal vpip shows that it's not to tight , I think he would be shoving here w/ Ax , Ax with a diamond , 2 pairs , sets , so u only call here for a FD + gutshot , so you have 13 outs , 13/47 ~ 2.5 to 1 , without improvement I doubt that you will win ( also you could have smthing like 11 outs if he has 2 pair /set). If I were in that spot , I would fold .
    • yeahyoung0312
      yeahyoung0312
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.12.2009 Posts: 340
      With 13 outs it would be 50/50. Plus you forgot about the 2Ks for an over set.

      Originally posted by minihulk22
      villain seems to call w/ a lot and his marginal vpip shows that it's not to tight , I think he would be shoving here w/ Ax , Ax with a diamond , 2 pairs , sets , so u only call here for a FD + gutshot , so you have 13 outs , 13/47 ~ 2.5 to 1 , without improvement I doubt that you will win ( also you could have smthing like 11 outs if he has 2 pair /set). If I were in that spot , I would fold .
    • MaestroOfZerg
      MaestroOfZerg
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510
      Hi,


      Agreed on the "flip a coin" thing :p It's not that likely that somebody playing 22/7 (meaning he mostly calls too much / doesn't raise often enough) is spazzing out lightly there, so often we'll be behind. Sometimes he'll show us something like QdJx that we're ahead of, but we'll see our fair share of two pair hands and even straights just trying to protect against the flush.

      That said our equity is never awful and villain is a midstacked fish, meaning there is always value in taking flips to get his money before somebody else does, so really it's up to you what you do with this one, either way it's no mistake without further reads on villain.


      Hope it helps.