[NL20-NL50] NL 50 SH, bottom set Vs TAG

    • Anger86
      Joined: 17.08.2008 Posts: 511
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.25/$0.5 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)

      Known players:
      BU (Hero):

      Preflop: Hero is BU with 4, 4.
      MP2 raises to $1.75, MP3 folds, CO calls $1.75, Hero calls $1.75, 2 folds, BB folds.

      Flop: ($6) 4, 5, 8 (3 players)
      MP2 checks, CO bets $3.75, Hero raises to $12.00, MP2 folds, CO raises to $48.25, Hero calls $36.25.

      UTG stats:
      Hands: 74
      VPIP/PFR: 18/15

      Villain's stats: CO
      Hands: 665
      VPIP/PFR: 20/15
      3bet: 5.4
      AF: 4.6

      I hate this situation.
      I don't like to call AI. When I did I knew I'm about to be dead.
      As I remember, then: "Don't fold set for 100 BB."
      But, I think, this is bulls**t.

      He almost never has 2 pair, straight or over-pair,
      instead - better set.

      I think this guy /cc PP only from CO, when opened from tight UTG.
      Then - he folds 99+ after my 3bet and pushes 55 and 88.

      Really, if you don't agree w/ me then explain, why?

  • 2 replies
    • knb22
      Joined: 29.04.2009 Posts: 212
      Based on my own experience from nl50sh, I would always go broke here. TAGs on this limit are perfectly capable of going broke in this spot with an overpair. He also seems pretty aggressive, and if his FlopAF is high too, he would often show up with 99+
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      you have to be really sure he has there 55/88. I think player would sometimes flat big overpairs, not really sure if they are stacking off that board especially when you make that big re-raise
      So I´d suggest to raise smaller to 9$, then he can very easily shove there with overpairs. Also i think he can have there sometimes 45 that he´d likely play the same way