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[NL2-NL10] More pocket twos.

    • aciddrop
      Joined: 08.10.2006 Posts: 1,519
      Known players: (for a description of vp$ip, pfr, ats, folded bb, af, wts, wsd or hands click here)

      0.50/1 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.8 by

      Preflop: Hero is CO with 2:club: , 2:heart: . MP3 posts a blind of $1.00. , Hero posts a blind of $1.00.
      UTG+1 calls $1.00, 3 folds, MP3 checks, Hero checks, BU raises to $4.00, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls $3.00, MP3 folds, Hero calls $3.00.

      Flop: ($14.50) 2:diamond: , 9:diamond: , 9:spade: (3 players)
      UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $4, BU folds, UTG+1 calls $4.00.

      Turn: ($22.50) 8:heart: (2 players)
      UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $12 (All-In), UTG+1 calls $12.00.

      River: ($46.50) 3:heart:

      Final Pot: $46.50

      So, playing SSS again, and this should be a fold. I was getting 4:1 to make the call, closing the action preflop. Is this going to be +EV, or is it always a fold here?
  • 7 replies
    • rrwillem
      Joined: 17.09.2007 Posts: 538
      I generally dont work with stats and everything, so I cant consider the way they have been playing. You have to call 3$ to get to 10,5$. You will flop a set around 1 in 8 cases. So for your calling you would have to get 3$ in to win 24$. If you think the pot will (on average with this type of players) get over 24$ I would call. But im sure someone will come with a more accurate calculation later :p

      Edit: Lourenz you are correct. Hed have to WIN that amount. :o
    • Laurenz1988
      Joined: 26.09.2007 Posts: 180
      wouldnt u need to win a pot of 48 total? (his 24+ ur 24). Making this call incorrect?
    • aciddrop
      Joined: 08.10.2006 Posts: 1,519
      Yeah, I need some work on this. I know it should be a fold preflop, and anyhow on the flop I should just push, the minbet is weird.

      However, there is 14.5 in the pot post flop. If I play this way, I will have to invest $3 x 8 preflop, which is $24, in order to get the rest of my stack in once, $16 in this case, in order to win $30.50 (14.50 plus the call) pre-rake, if I am called every time I make the push. And then, I would have to have the best hand every time I was called.
      Am I on the right track here? Which would make this definitely -EV, because there is no way both conditions, always being called and my hand always being best, can be guaranteed.
    • mchaggis
      Joined: 15.09.2006 Posts: 157
      SSS forum perhaps? :)
    • Puschkin81
      Joined: 14.04.2006 Posts: 4,786
      Originally posted by mchaggis
      SSS forum perhaps? :)
    • Berliner1982
      Joined: 12.07.2006 Posts: 5,644
      For me its still a fold. 4:1 is not enough and if you call anyway and hit on the Flop, you have to go All-In, since you´re pot committed and not everytime you have the best hand then. And only minbetting isn´t an option on the flop as well, since for one its looking suspicious and second allows others maybe to outdraw you.
    • aciddrop
      Joined: 08.10.2006 Posts: 1,519
      You are correct. The odds are insufficient, for the reasons you mention, and my crazy minbetting is just ludicrous as well. As it happens, he didn't need to outdraw me here, he had pocket nines. Which means, hitting my hand and getting something very strong was still not enough, when the opponent got something stronger.