making trips n the flop

    • jass1960
      jass1960
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      Joined: 15.04.2010 Posts: 709
      Hi Guys

      Can some one give me the stat for making trips on the flop when holding pocket pairs.

      I had a feeling it was 1 in 9 but I could be well wrong on that one!!

      My stats are 21/309 closer to 1 in 15 - is that a correct stat or just variance?
  • 14 replies
    • joeldowey123
      joeldowey123
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      Joined: 09.06.2010 Posts: 961
      12% of the time more or less

      Its a weird one for me, it seems everytime i hit a set its ona wet board so i cant get much value from it unless someone wants to pay with a draw, which is surprising a low amount of times!
    • jass1960
      jass1960
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.04.2010 Posts: 709
      Originally posted by joeldowey123
      12% of the time more or less

      Cheers

      Last few I have managed to get value.... apart from JJ fl J v QQ, Q on the turn X(
    • Schnitzelfisch
      Schnitzelfisch
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      Joined: 08.11.2008 Posts: 4,952
      Hello!

      When you have three of a kind and you hold a pocket pair, it is called a set.

      When you have three of a kind and there is a pair on the board (you hold the 3rd card in your hand), it's called trips.

      I'm not sure if my calculations are collect, but they should be somewhat close.

      P(set on flop) = 2/50 + 2/49 + 2/48 = 0,04 + 0,0408 + 0,0416 = 12,24%

      Another interesting fact is: You will have a pocket pair in 0.0588 in cases. so 0,0588 * 0,1224 = 0,0072 means that if you see a flop with every pocket pair you hold, you have a probability of 0,72% to hit a set, which means that you will on average hit 7,2 sets per 1k hands, which is equivalent to 1 set every 139 hands.

      Best regards,

      Primzi
    • jass1960
      jass1960
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      Joined: 15.04.2010 Posts: 709
      Thanks Primzi for that awesome answer
    • MrMardyBum
      MrMardyBum
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      Joined: 14.03.2009 Posts: 2,235
      Originally posted by Primzi
      Hello!

      When you have three of a kind and you hold a pocket pair, it is called a set.

      When you have three of a kind and there is a pair on the board (you hold the 3rd card in your hand), it's called trips.

      I'm not sure if my calculations are collect, but they should be somewhat close.

      P(set on flop) = 2/50 + 2/49 + 2/48 = 0,04 + 0,0408 + 0,0416 = 12,24%

      Another interesting fact is: You will have a pocket pair in 0.0588 in cases. so 0,0588 * 0,1224 = 0,0072 means that if you see a flop with every pocket pair you hold, you have a probability of 0,72% to hit a set, which means that you will on average hit 7,2 sets per 1k hands, which is equivalent to 1 set every 139 hands.

      Best regards,

      Primzi
      When did you learn how to do that?! Or was it a fluke? ;)
    • Schnitzelfisch
      Schnitzelfisch
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      Joined: 08.11.2008 Posts: 4,952
      That's highschool math duh :( . Pretty basic stuffs really, I just hope i actually got it right :D
    • saxemephone
      saxemephone
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      Joined: 02.02.2009 Posts: 84
      Actually that calculation isn't correct since the probabilities don't add. (If you flip 2 coins the probability of getting heads is not 1/2 + 1/2 = 1)

      If you assume your opponents will have each card with equal probability (not a very realistic assumption) the probability of NOT hitting a set is

      P(not set) = (48/50)*(47/49)*(46/48) = 0.8824

      so

      P(set) = 1-P(not set) = 0.1176,

      meaning you hit a set once every 8.5 flops.

      If you drop the assumption the probabilities shouldn't change much but would depend on ranges and the preflop action and would be tough to calculate.
    • MrMardyBum
      MrMardyBum
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      Joined: 14.03.2009 Posts: 2,235
      Basic answer is 1 out of 7.5 times though :D

      EDIT**
      Posted same time as above....

      What you`ve said there is wrong, its widely known you get odds close to 8 to 1 to flop a set, but not over.
    • saxemephone
      saxemephone
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2009 Posts: 84
      8 to 1 is the same thing as one in 9 times, so yes you get close to 8 to 1 (7.5:1) but not over. I think you're remembering the 7.5 from the 7.5:1 ratio.
    • MrMardyBum
      MrMardyBum
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      Joined: 14.03.2009 Posts: 2,235
      Okay I am wrong. My bad. Sorry :)
    • Schnitzelfisch
      Schnitzelfisch
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      Joined: 08.11.2008 Posts: 4,952
      As I said, I wasn't sure if i was correct, but I was somewhat close. The one excluding all the non sets seems about right. I have no idea why the oponent's cards should affect the probability of you hitting a set on the flop though, if we assume that you will see 100% of the flops, the probability should be like that... I see what you're getting at though, like if someone has a tight range and 3bets you preflop, you are less likely to hit the set with AA because his range "steals" some of the cards from the deck? But then again, that only decreases probability of that one case, and in the other case where most of oponents fold it would mean that they probably don't have an ace, which would increase your chances of hitting a set, but all in all everything should even out in the long run and the average probability should be those 11%, right?

      Primzi
    • garyk5846
      garyk5846
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      Joined: 10.07.2010 Posts: 60
      Originally posted by Primzi
      Hello!

      When you have three of a kind and you hold a pocket pair, it is called a set.

      When you have three of a kind and there is a pair on the board (you hold the 3rd card in your hand), it's called trips.

      I'm not sure if my calculations are collect, but they should be somewhat close.

      P(set on flop) = 2/50 + 2/49 + 2/48 = 0,04 + 0,0408 + 0,0416 = 12,24%

      Another interesting fact is: You will have a pocket pair in 0.0588 in cases. so 0,0588 * 0,1224 = 0,0072 means that if you see a flop with every pocket pair you hold, you have a probability of 0,72% to hit a set, which means that you will on average hit 7,2 sets per 1k hands, which is equivalent to 1 set every 139 hands.

      Best regards,

      Primzi
      I'm not sure if it's correct or not, as I'm not sure if you can simply add probabilities. I prefer using 100% minus the probability of not hitting a set. Probability of not hitting a set is 48/50 x 47/49 x 46/48 = 88.24 percent. So the probabilty of hitting a set is 11.76 percent. Which is more or less 8/1.
      Could just be a coincidence that you got near enough to it using addition...but I could be wrong
    • garyk5846
      garyk5846
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      Joined: 10.07.2010 Posts: 60
      just realised that sum has already been done up there, my bad...
    • jass1960
      jass1960
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      Joined: 15.04.2010 Posts: 709
      Originally posted by jass1960

      I had a feeling it was 1 in 9 but I could be well wrong on that one!!

      Great debate and it seems that 1 in 9 is the correct answer!!