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[NL20-NL50] NL 25 FR, QJs resteal from BB

    • oedipa
      Joined: 27.07.2009 Posts: 127
      Hello guys,

      I think I played this hand correctly, but I want to prove it to myself with an equation and see how much +EV play it was.
      I think it is somewhere in the strategy section, but I would like to use this example and from here I will do it myself :)
      So here I go:

      $0.1/$0.25 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)

      Known players:
      BB (Hero):

      villain is 12/11 after 105 hands, 46% resteal (13)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with J, Q.
      3 folds, BU raises to $0.75, SB folds, Hero raises to $2.50, BU calls $1.75.

      Flop: ($5.1) 2, 4, J (2 players)
      Hero bets $2.75, BU calls $2.75.

      Turn: ($10.6) T (2 players)
      Hero checks, BU bets $6.00, Hero raises to $19.75, BU folds, Hero gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $16.6.

      My plan on flop was to c/r AI any safe card meaning no A,K and club. For that cas I had to bet one BB more on F.

      I give him calling range 99+, AQ+ of which I can count everything as continuation range on given flop. I have 55% equity against 45%.
      If i exclude AA and KK from that range I have 68 to 32 because I think he would 3 bet them either preflop or on flop. and even if not I can discount my equity on flop to 60% against his 40%.
      On the turn he bets 6 into 10.6 so I bet 19.75 to win 16.6.
      I have 54% equity of the pot and he has 46%.

      His range without AA, but with KK is 3,32%. Against that range I have 58% equity on turn. He folds AKo, AKs and AQs that isnt hearts or clubs. other things he shoves. So his shoving range is 2,4% and against that range I have 33% equity. So I have 30% fold equity plus 33% hand range equity.

      And now I don't know how to continue with the equation, but I have a feeling that the play with the assigned hand range wasn't so +Ev as I thought. It looks to me as breakeven play.

      I know the equation is based on a reasonably tight calling range. If I add some random broadway crap or lower pocket pairs I get better results.

      Thank you for help and advices :)
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