AA early in tournament vs bubble play.

    • Styr
      Styr
      Silver
      Joined: 11.03.2009 Posts: 408
      Given, that most people at the lowest limits have no clue as how to play on the bubble of a standard speed (or any speed, for that matter, but I am basing this post on standard 10 minute blinds) 9-man SNG, and one would have very good reads of the table by then, would it not be wiser to fold anything less than aces pre-flop (I might even consider folding them) Calling an all in would bust one about 20% of the time with AA, even more with slightly lesser holdings, like KK or QQ. And then there are the occasional aces where I am kicked out 80% of the time.

      Would it not make more sense to let the people left behind by evolution kick each other, and some more-or-less decent players out, until it is 4 or 5 handed, and start abusing them then? Also, it would help to make a tighter image, thus making abusing the bubble that much easier.

      I might be wrong, but going all in with aces is still a gamble. It is gambling every time one goes to showdown, with aces one is just a 5 to 1 favourite, but gets paid (loosely) 1 to 1, unless there are more people in the pot.

      I believe that a good player has more of an edge in the bubble and ITM play. And even if one manages to double up early, it is no guarantee to make it into money when risking all or the majority of ones chips on a single hand, unless holding the nuts, which AA obviously is not.

      Correct me, if I am mistaken.
  • 8 replies
    • lennonac
      lennonac
      Global
      Joined: 02.05.2009 Posts: 1,421
      you are mistaken ;)
    • Styr
      Styr
      Silver
      Joined: 11.03.2009 Posts: 408
      May be, but I am not convinced.

      Let's say the stacks are: 7000; 3000; 2000 and 1500, with the hero having 1500. Lets assume the blinds are 100/200 or higher. I know the 3000 and 2000 stacks are only going to call with AA, or other monsters. Thus it does not matter, if I have AK or 87s, other than the fact, that I have a better chance of sucking out with the latter. Even 72o would be profitable, it I know with a high certainty that he will fold. Even if I were to push with KTs and villain calls with AQ, I would still win about 40% of the time. Most of the time he does not call, however, and I get a significant increase to my stack at minimal risk, better, than losing every 5th hand vs random nuthose escapees in the early stages.

      Unless it is a winner takes all, the goal should be to survive until you can rely more on skill and less on the luck factor. That is what I think, at least.
    • StoneJ
      StoneJ
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.08.2010 Posts: 153
      Getting paid "1 to 1" when your a 4 to 1 favourite is about as good as it gets. If your folding Aces you might aswell just throw your money down the drain
    • Styr
      Styr
      Silver
      Joined: 11.03.2009 Posts: 408
      I was thinking mainly about KK. Yes, I doubt I would fold aces
    • viewer88
      viewer88
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.04.2008 Posts: 5,545
      The top hands will be profitable for you, so you should play 'm.

      And if you wait for the game to become 4-5 handed before you start abusing you'll be the shortstack most of the time ^^
    • Hlynkinn
      Hlynkinn
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.06.2008 Posts: 4,998
      Originally posted by viewer88
      The top hands will be profitable for you, so you should play 'm.

      And if you wait for the game to become 4-5 handed before you start abusing you'll be the shortstack most of the time ^^
      lol this...

      And as a good player you have a edge through out all the tourney... and giving up this edge is just blasphemy...
    • Steelbrewer
      Steelbrewer
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.04.2009 Posts: 580
      If you're folding all the hands you can forget about having 1500 when bubble comes. You may make an experiment, just sit out at the start of the SnG and wait for blind to get to 100/200 - that's pretty much the same approach as playing AA only, you will find yourself with 100-500 chips (if you by some miracle were given a couple of walks) or busted most of the time on 50/100, 75/150 levels.

      I hope you made this thread as a joke and never seriously thought about it. :D
    • pzhon
      pzhon
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      Even if your opponents do not understand the bubble, this does not mean that if you get to the bubble you definitely cash. This is particularly true if you get to the bubble with a small stack.

      You should not pass up large edges early on, even if it mean you risk busting out. Doubling up to 3000 chips is worth only slightly less than having 1500 chips even if you have a large skill advantage. If you bust out early, you saved some time, and you can take your skill advantage to another tournament.

      A common misconception is that you will develop a large skill advantage by turning down larger and larger edges. In fact, your skill advantage comes from being able to identify good situations. If you pass on them, your skill advantage decreases.

      You should be playing many, many more hands than AA in early levels. You should develop the skill to play more hands profitably. Usually, in early levels, you are not simply calling all-in preflop. Even a hand like 76o should be played in some situations in early levels, usually playing a small pot. You should not be very risk-averse in large pots with 9 players left, and your risk aversion in small pots should be microscopic.