[NL20-NL50] FD + GS odds to call a turn raise

    • Dublimax
      Joined: 22.11.2008 Posts: 2,233
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.1/$0.2 No-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)

      Known players:
      BU (Hero):

      Preflop: Hero is BU with A, J.
      MP3 folds, CO calls $0.20, Hero raises to $0.80, 2 folds, CO calls $0.60.

      Flop: ($1.9) K, 9, T (2 players)
      CO checks, Hero bets $1.00, CO calls $1.00.

      Turn: ($3.9) K (2 players)
      CO checks, Hero bets $2.20, CO raises to $4.80, Hero calls $2.60.

      River: ($13.5) 5 (2 players)
      CO bets $6.20, Hero raises to $12.70, CO folds, Hero gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $19.7.

      Villain is VP:30/PR:13/AFq:33 over 23 hands.

      Pretty standart PreFlop and Flop.
      When he raises Turn, I think it is fair to put him on a K. Like KQ,KJ,KT
      I was pretty sure I had the odds here to call. I have to call 2.6 in a 10.9 pot (24%)

      Here is what the equilator says:

      I have 18% vs KQ,KJ,KT
      So I need 3.5 $ more into the pot to make it profitable.

      BUT I also have reverse implied odds if he has KT.

      Not really sure how to calculate this but it looks like I dont have the odds all in all.

      What do you think?
      Also should I raise AI the river once I hit? I thought that he would call no matter what he had since he had very little left....
  • 4 replies
    • TetraQuark
      Joined: 21.05.2008 Posts: 1,521

      You are behind KT, K9, TT, 99 and if you assume he will go all in with any Kx you should push the river cause you get enough eq.
    • THESHade
      Joined: 25.03.2010 Posts: 5,418
      IMO u shouldnt barrel T cause he isnt thinking on higher lvl for sure and therefore when K hits he will call u down a lot so u either have little FE or u are beat and u have reverse implied odds
    • falcone1983
      Joined: 17.05.2009 Posts: 5,420
      Much bigger on the flop.

      I take the free card on the turn because the King is a bad card to barrel and we have Ace high.

      Since he can have QJ as well as Kx, river is a shove.
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      quite standard b/c turn.
      You have enough equity against Kx hand and sometimes you might even hold best hand and since you´re ip you can expect him to c/c or bet out himself on the river quite often
      As played: I´d shove river. He would likely not bet/fold there Kx+ hand