[NL20-NL50] FD + GS odds to call a turn raise

    • Dublimax
      Dublimax
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.11.2008 Posts: 2,233
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.1/$0.2 No-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)

      Known players:
      SB:
      $20.00
      BB:
      $7.76
      MP3:
      $7.79
      CO:
      $26.08
      BU (Hero):
      $19.30


      Preflop: Hero is BU with A, J.
      MP3 folds, CO calls $0.20, Hero raises to $0.80, 2 folds, CO calls $0.60.

      Flop: ($1.9) K, 9, T (2 players)
      CO checks, Hero bets $1.00, CO calls $1.00.

      Turn: ($3.9) K (2 players)
      CO checks, Hero bets $2.20, CO raises to $4.80, Hero calls $2.60.

      River: ($13.5) 5 (2 players)
      CO bets $6.20, Hero raises to $12.70, CO folds, Hero gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $19.7.

      Villain is VP:30/PR:13/AFq:33 over 23 hands.

      Pretty standart PreFlop and Flop.
      When he raises Turn, I think it is fair to put him on a K. Like KQ,KJ,KT
      I was pretty sure I had the odds here to call. I have to call 2.6 in a 10.9 pot (24%)

      Here is what the equilator says:

      I have 18% vs KQ,KJ,KT
      So I need 3.5 $ more into the pot to make it profitable.

      BUT I also have reverse implied odds if he has KT.

      Not really sure how to calculate this but it looks like I dont have the odds all in all.

      What do you think?
      Also should I raise AI the river once I hit? I thought that he would call no matter what he had since he had very little left....
  • 4 replies
    • TetraQuark
      TetraQuark
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.05.2008 Posts: 1,520
      Hi!

      You are behind KT, K9, TT, 99 and if you assume he will go all in with any Kx you should push the river cause you get enough eq.
    • THESHade
      THESHade
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.03.2010 Posts: 5,418
      IMO u shouldnt barrel T cause he isnt thinking on higher lvl for sure and therefore when K hits he will call u down a lot so u either have little FE or u are beat and u have reverse implied odds
    • falcone1983
      falcone1983
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.05.2009 Posts: 5,420
      Much bigger on the flop.

      I take the free card on the turn because the King is a bad card to barrel and we have Ace high.

      Since he can have QJ as well as Kx, river is a shove.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      quite standard b/c turn.
      You have enough equity against Kx hand and sometimes you might even hold best hand and since you´re ip you can expect him to c/c or bet out himself on the river quite often
      As played: I´d shove river. He would likely not bet/fold there Kx+ hand