[NL2-NL10] NL400 99 set on 4-card straight board

    • Tampaloeres81
      Tampaloeres81
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.03.2009 Posts: 1,416
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $4(BB) Replayer
      SB ($125)
      BB ($462)
      UTG ($149)
      UTG+1 ($191)
      Hero ($196)
      MP1 ($631)
      MP2 ($132)
      CO ($158)
      BTN ($175)

      Dealt to Hero 9:diamond: 9:spade:

      fold, fold, Hero raises to $12, fold, fold, CO calls $12, fold, fold, BB calls $8

      FLOP ($38) 9:heart: 8:spade: 6:club:

      BB checks, Hero bets $25, CO folds, BB calls $25

      TURN ($88) 9:heart: 8:spade: 6:club: 7:diamond:

      BB bets $38, Hero calls $38

      RIVER ($164) 9:heart: 8:spade: 6:club: 7:diamond: A:club:

      BB bets $106, Hero folds

      BB wins $161

      Hi,

      This hands turned out nasty!
      Only 80 hands on villain (ketaleko):
      24/12 3bet 14% so he looks aggro Laggy

      Flop:
      Easy value bet with top set. Any reason to bet even bigger (except turn card)?

      Turn:
      fold: straight is there and pot was 3-way, so big chance
      call: He is aggro, maybe he tries to buy the pot. We still have 11 outs for FH or quads and we will get his stack most likely.
      shove: we still beat all sets and 2-pairs, and we have outs to the FH quads

      I went for calling and hoping for the best. Not a great game plan huh :f_cry:

      Once he shoves the river, he knows I have a strong hand. He will shove straights for sure, but will he shove sets and 2-pairs as well?

      But only JT makes sense, otherwise he would call flop with GS...

      Thinking again, i should have called with 2nd nuts. (him making his set AAA is also very unlikely). Thing is, during play "I was super shure he made his straight"... Tilt?

      Thanks,

      T.
  • 2 replies
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      I was thinking long of this but as soon as I PTR'ed him it was pretty easy.

      I wasnt sure if call turn & then fold river was the right play because as you said your range looks a bit more towards ''OK but not worth jamming it in''

      However this guy plays everything FLSH, NLSH, NLFR from $0.5/$1 to $5/$10 sometimes.

      he plays 29/13 at 1/2$ FR with AF 1.4, AFq 35% with moderately high Turn AFq but low river AFq

      So against this player who barely even folds the Flop i would make it $30 on the Flop and call his Turn donkbet for boat. Then if you do not hit and he bets, you can safely assume he has a random Tx because he is just a random fish

      What you also can do (alternative line) is raising Turn allin for $150 to win $126 approx with equity. If you think he can't fold sets and 2pair some % of the time you are good here

      Best regards,
      Gerv
    • Tampaloeres81
      Tampaloeres81
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.03.2009 Posts: 1,416
      Thanks Gerv :)

      He didnt seem that fishy at all at the table. Small sample size :f_biggrin:

      T.