[NL2-NL10] NL5 SH Turned flush, what's the best play with it?

    • Pastala
      Pastala
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.03.2009 Posts: 33
      Is my turn play too suspicious? I know that it definitely looks like flush but yesterday i watched some Verneer videos and felt like it was the right spot (at that moment). Of course, if the villain has something there, i give him a real good price to draw out on me. Usually i'm raising turn ~2.5x his bet, but his bet was 1/2 pot, so i thought he is afraid of flush with some Ax and wouldn't call my 2.5x bet. Sample size is pretty descent with this guy. Haven't seen from him some big bluffs or stupid plays. And the thing that we both are deepstacked.

      Villain:
      VPIP/PFR/AF/Hands 21/11/2.3/200
      WTSD/W$SD 32/56

      Hero (BTN): $9.61
      SB: $5.00
      BB: $4.25
      UTG: $6.13
      MP: $3.19
      CO: $8.02

      Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is BTN with Q :spade: J :spade:
      UTG raises to $0.15, 1 fold, CO calls $0.15, Hero calls $0.15, 2 folds

      Flop: ($0.52) J :heart: A :spade: T :spade: (3 players)
      UTG checks, CO bets $0.30, Hero calls $0.30, UTG folds

      Turn: ($1.12) 9 :spade: (2 players)
      CO bets $0.55, Hero raises to $1.10, CO calls $0.55

      River: ($3.32) 4 :club: (2 players)
      CO checks, Hero bets $2.60, CO calls $2.60
  • 4 replies
    • Duudalinja
      Duudalinja
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.12.2009 Posts: 1,030
      Howdy,

      I tend to raise flop and get it in. Our hand has a lot of outs and if many of them hit turn, it may scare off two pair/set combos from our opponent as they are quiet obvious so it may become impossible to get the value we wanted to get. He may fold better hands at this point which is still good for us and if he shoves we should have enough equity to call.

      Good luck!
    • MaestroOfZerg
      MaestroOfZerg
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510
      Hi,


      I don't mind just calling the flop, truthfully you shouldn't count on guys with his stats folding any sort of two pairs+ and it's quite unlikely he tries to push the K-high flushdraw very hard on us as well. So overall I think we're doing pretty bad once all the money goes in and deep I'd either just call or raise/call the flop and look for a good turn.

      As played I know who Verneer is but I don't know why he'd minraise there specifically, if villain bet flop and bet turn on that card it indicates quite a good hand already given how ugly the board is, possibly two pairs or AxKs, I'd just make a normal raise and expect him to make the call regardless. River is fine obviously.


      Hope it helps.
    • Duudalinja
      Duudalinja
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.12.2009 Posts: 1,030
      I meant that draw completing turn cards may scare off some some two pair/set combos if you start raising or betting enthusiastically. No doubt he will get it in on flop with them and we are not favourite against them.

      Against a range of two pair+:

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 43.185% 41.50% 01.69% 13968 568.00 { QsJs }
      Hand 1: 56.815% 55.13% 01.69% 18556 568.00 { AA, JJ-TT, AJs-ATs, KQs, AJo-ATo, KQo }

      Assuming we raise to 1$ on flop and he shoves we have to call 6,87$ to win 16,04$, it means you need ~42,8% equity.

      Yeah, it is really close, but assuming he may fold some holdings that are better than ours at this moment - it think it's not so bad overall.

      Fact we are deep - that may be good reason to keep away from making spewy moves in this situation, but at the same time it means if I hit my outs and I want to get his moneyz and if we are playing too passive, it just won't be possible.

      But +1 for raising turn more, he may just switch to calldown mode with his hand, so chaaaaarge.

      Just my two cents, not arguing with professional advice. :)
    • MaestroOfZerg
      MaestroOfZerg
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510
      Hi,


      Oh I thought our equity was a bit lower than that. Still, that just means we're close to breaking even on the play, and since I think we're behind his range for continuing to a raise in the first place and he'll probably give up on the turn when he's bluffing anyway, I don't see that much value in forcing the action there, unless you specifically plan on having him bet/call a lot of stuff that he might play incorrectly on later streets, which is possible but somewhat dicey since you'll have to mostly gauge how likely he is to fold Ax hands when you continue to barrel (i'm guessing it'll take 3 barrels to get him off AQ/AK assuming they miss their gutshot, possible worse Ax as well).

      And given how small he seems to be betting I don't think we'd have much trouble outplaying him in position with our hand, so truthfully I'd rather play poker in position than ram in 160bb on the flop on a break-even play when he doesn't fold.


      Hope it helps.