Two players with the same skill get very different results?

    • Tosh5457
      Tosh5457
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      Joined: 18.01.2008 Posts: 3,062
      Hi, I'm recently in a debate with someone, and he says that the results from 2 poker players with the same skill (same expected value) tend to diverge. So this means that player A could get a $10K BR and player B get only a $2K BR for the same number of hands played (with many hands played), and this divergence would become larger and larger the more hands they played.

      Does it make sense?
  • 51 replies
    • justkyle88
      justkyle88
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      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 7,598
      Its called variance.

      2 players that's played exactly the same could end up with 2 completely different bankrolls at the end of that period, true.

      Different opponents.
      Different hands.
      Different table dynamics.
      Different times of days.

      Think you get the point..lol
    • nathanrenard
      nathanrenard
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      Joined: 09.02.2009 Posts: 816
      Ofc it makes sense.

      Doesn't makes sense thinking that Player "A" will always have the 5x positive results. One time or another B will be ahead, A will be down...
    • alenstrat
      alenstrat
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      Joined: 13.03.2009 Posts: 821
      I'm player B. :s_mad:
    • chenny8888
      chenny8888
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      if player's skill is fixed and neither players improve, there will be a decrease in divergence as time goes on however (ie difference in bankrolls/net profits will become the same)
    • Tosh5457
      Tosh5457
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      Joined: 18.01.2008 Posts: 3,062
      So this basically negates the "luck is equal for everybody in the long run" statement, because it's possible to have very different results with the same edge. However poker players with different bankrolls may play the same limit and at that time their bankrolls will converge and higher limits mean lower winrates, but with traders this doesn't happen.
    • Tosh5457
      Tosh5457
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      Originally posted by chenny8888
      if player's skill is fixed and neither players improve, there will be a decrease in divergence as time goes on however (ie difference in bankrolls/net profits will become the same)
      if they play at the same limit yes, but not if they play at different limits (with the same winrate).
    • Schnitzelfisch
      Schnitzelfisch
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      Originally posted by Tosh5457
      So this basically negates the "luck is equal for everybody in the long run" statement, because it's possible to have very different results with the same edge. However poker players with different bankrolls may play the same limit and at that time their bankrolls will converge and higher limits mean lower winrates, but with traders this doesn't happen.
      Yes... But many people do not really know how long the "long run" actually is. Once you have seen a graph of 1,5 million hands and 300 buy-ins below all-in EV, you start asking yourself how long it really is ;) . In theory, they will eventually have the same bankroll in the end, but that might take a few million hands to happen ;) .
    • ihufa
      ihufa
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      Joined: 18.03.2008 Posts: 3,323
      this is not true. since they are both equally good they will both get the same winnings. this means their bankrolls will only varie by up to 10$
    • Kruppe
      Kruppe
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      Joined: 20.02.2008 Posts: 2,145
      they will converge. opposite of diverge.

      in the shortterm they will go apart because of variance and BRM, but in the longterm they converge

      if 2 equally good players both play an infinite amount of hands, they will win amounts that are only minute fractions different from eachother
    • yeahyoung0312
      yeahyoung0312
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      Joined: 16.12.2009 Posts: 340
      I think the real question behind the question asked is:
      "Damn I think I am as good as *** but why am I down 100BI when he's up 300?" AKA "Is life fair?"
    • Schnitzelfisch
      Schnitzelfisch
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      Joined: 08.11.2008 Posts: 4,952
      Originally posted by yeahyoung0312
      I think the real question behind the question asked is:
      "Damn I think I am as good as *** but why am I down 100BI when he's up 300?" AKA "Is life fair?"
      There is something called karma :) .
    • Tosh5457
      Tosh5457
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      Joined: 18.01.2008 Posts: 3,062
      they will converge. opposite of diverge.
      In theory, they will eventually have the same bankroll in the end, but that might take a few million hands to happen.
      But if for example on the case of trading, you win 100% per year on your account. Two traders start with 10K. If by the effect of variance account of trader A goes to 11K and player B's account goes to 10K, since they have the same EV (100% per year) it's most probable in the long run that trader A will have more money than trader B (more 10%), and then they'll tend to diverge (the difference between them gets bigger and bigger, although player A is expected to have 10% more than player B and this percentage is expected to remain constant). It's like trader A started with 11K and trader B started with 10K.

      In fact, in the beggining if they have the same edge it's expected that they'll have the same bankroll in the end. But as one of them gets a different bankroll by the effect of variance, that's no longer the most probable scenario, the most probable scenario is that the difference between their bankrolls will rise.
    • taavi1337
      taavi1337
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      Originally posted by Schnitzelfisch
      Originally posted by yeahyoung0312
      I think the real question behind the question asked is:
      "Damn I think I am as good as *** but why am I down 100BI when he's up 300?" AKA "Is life fair?"
      There is something called karma :) .
      might I remind you that you are not unlucky =)
    • Schnitzelfisch
      Schnitzelfisch
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      Joined: 08.11.2008 Posts: 4,952
      Originally posted by taavi1337
      Originally posted by Schnitzelfisch
      Originally posted by yeahyoung0312
      I think the real question behind the question asked is:
      "Damn I think I am as good as *** but why am I down 100BI when he's up 300?" AKA "Is life fair?"
      There is something called karma :) .
      might I remind you that you are not unlucky =)
      thanks :) . might i remind you that you are lucky (at least currently?) :D .
    • conall88
      conall88
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      Joined: 02.01.2009 Posts: 1,715
      short answer:

      diverge in short-term

      probably still diverge in medium term

      may begin to converge in long term

      will converge eventually, but may take longer than the human lifespan to actually happen
    • taavi1337
      taavi1337
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      Joined: 29.05.2009 Posts: 2,920
      Originally posted by Schnitzelfisch
      Originally posted by taavi1337
      Originally posted by Schnitzelfisch
      Originally posted by yeahyoung0312
      I think the real question behind the question asked is:
      "Damn I think I am as good as *** but why am I down 100BI when he's up 300?" AKA "Is life fair?"
      There is something called karma :) .
      might I remind you that you are not unlucky =)
      thanks :) . might i remind you that you are lucky (at least currently?) :D .
      Hahahaha, thanks. True :f_love:
    • vonki
      vonki
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      I doubt however, that the 2 players are exactly equially skilled. Even if they are, I really really doubt the two players would always make the same moves in the same pots, I would say that's close to impossible.

      All players are different, even if they are somewhat equal in skills. I would in fact get scared if I found someone that would make the exact same moves as me, with the exact betsizing etc in more then 90% of the cases :f_p:
    • chenny8888
      chenny8888
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      Joined: 03.10.2007 Posts: 19,324
      Originally posted by vonki
      I doubt however, that the 2 players are exactly equially skilled. Even if they are, I really really doubt the two players would always make the same moves in the same pots, I would say that's close to impossible.

      All players are different, even if they are somewhat equal in skills. I would in fact get scared if I found someone that would make the exact same moves as me, with the exact betsizing etc in more then 90% of the cases :f_p:
      obviously it's a hypothetical situation. there is variance in the scenarios they will encounter as players, and as a result equal numbers of tough and easy games will come up
    • Wriggers
      Wriggers
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      Joined: 21.07.2009 Posts: 3,250
      I always thought that if you run under EV then there is no reason you should run above EV in the future, or to put it simply: "The dice has no memory".

      So if you run 10BI under EV for 20k hands, you EV will then be expected to stay 10BI under EV, not for you to run 10BI above EV for the next 20k hands so you will meet up with you long term EV. That wouldn't make sense at all, that's basically saying "I was unlucky before so i've got to be lucky in the future".

      So no, they should not diverge or converge if they have ran at different levels of EV.