[NL2-NL10] NL10 AKo after R

    • Sreteb
      Sreteb
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.09.2007 Posts: 1,587
      0.05/0.10 No-Limit Hold'em (10 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.9 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Total number of players : 10
      Hero ( $1.85 USD )
      MP+1 ( $9.83 USD )
      MP+2 ( $3.47 USD )
      CO ( $1.28 USD )
      BTN ( $ 3.84USD )
      SB ( $3.92 USD )
      BB ( $2 USD )
      UTG ( $4.10 USD )
      UTG+1 ( $10.27 USD )
      UTG+2 ( $6.66 USD )

      Preflop: Hero is MP with K:diamond: , A:club:
      UTG raises to $0.40, 2 folds, Hero ???

      For SSS an AK would be a reraise hand. With JJ/QQ I would shove all day long. But with AKo and more than half the table still waiting, I'm not so sure I should. Best case scenario there's a coinflip situation, if I get another caller, I feel I'm in worse shape.
      Is a fold here to passive?
  • 10 replies
    • Eclipt
      Eclipt
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.05.2007 Posts: 755
      Have you been observing him? Judging from size of his stack, he is poor player, or he just lost big pot, and he may be on tilt.

      Against tight-agressive hand range you have about 40% equity. It is not really much. I understand your worries.

      If you don`t want any callers after you, you can push all-in :) . Normal raise would be $1.20, so you will have most of your stack in the pot anyway, and you will go all-in after his re-raise, or on flop.

      Remember, AK is very profitable hand if you play it correctly. You really lose only against pocket pairs. You have every other hand dominated. He may also have AQ, KQs, maybe even something worse.

      Don`t worry he has AA or KK every time ;)
    • Sreteb
      Sreteb
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.09.2007 Posts: 1,587
      Forgot to mention that I didn't have any reads on him.

      I did check my database and I do have one hand with him. Happened just before this one. He was SS, called on CO with K10s, he called to the river until his straight hit, to double up. That's why his stack size is weird looking.
      Missed that at the table though...

      I agree that it's better to go AI here to get rid of more players. HU I'm only a real dog against KK+ (at least that's what I think you're saying ;) ).
      The six players left really worry me a lot though. My understanding of SSS is that you try to avoid as much risk as possible. I have a feeling that you will lose this more than half the time. Either by a KK+ or a bad flop for hero. No math on this though...

      So is an AI +EV, in this OOP spot?
    • Eclipt
      Eclipt
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.05.2007 Posts: 755
      To make it clear:
      Against AA, KK you lose almost for 100%
      Against other pockets you are slight loser (about 45% chanses of winning)
      Against every other hand, you win almost for sure.

      (In SSS. In Big-Stack it is a bit more complicated :P )

      PS Equilator is very helpfull tool :) You can download it from http://www.pokerstrategy.com/software/

      If you get called by Tight player after you, you still get 3-way coinflip:

      code:
                     Equity    Win       Split     Lost      Hand
      Player 1:       30,203%   20,133%   21,789%   58,078%   AKo
      Player 2:       34,895%   28,395%   14,648%   56,957%   JJ+, AJs+, KQs, AQo+
      Player 3:       34,902%   28,412%   14,627%   56,961%   JJ+, AJs+, KQs, AQo+ 

      Don`t worry. Even if you lose one time, you will win the other time.
    • Sreteb
      Sreteb
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.09.2007 Posts: 1,587
      I guess it comes down to what range you give them. Maybe I give opps to much credit. At the time I gave him a tighter range, more like JJ+,AKs,AKo. According to pokerstove I would about a 40/60 dog with that.

      739,715,328 games 0.005 secs 147,943,065,600 games/sec

      Board:
      Dead:

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 59.460% 43.60% 15.86% 322525584 117305460.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
      Hand 1: 40.540% 24.68% 15.86% 182578824 117305460.00 { AKs, AKo }

      If KK+ is out there I still would have ~20% equity, but that's not what I want to see :) . It just seems to me I'm either a little behind or way behind. I do have some fold equity, but he's prob ready to go.
      With so many yet to act, couldn't it be +EV to wait for a better spot? If I shove I have to pray for a coinflip and if that works I have to pray again? Or am I hoping for this situation and I just have to close my eyes?

      Easy shove or easy fold?
    • Sreteb
      Sreteb
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.09.2007 Posts: 1,587
      FWIW here is the rest of the hand.


      0.05/0.10 No-Limit Hold'em (10 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.9 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is MP with K:diamond: , A:club:
      UTG raises to $0.40, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1.85 (All-In), MP+1 folds, CO calls $1.85, 3 folds, UTG calls $1.45.

      Flop: ($5.70) 9:diamond: , 4:club: , 9:spade: (2 players)
      UTG bets $2.25 (All-In), CO raises to $1.62 (All-In).

      Turn: ($9.57) Q:spade:
      River: ($9.57) 8:heart:


      Final Pot: $9.57

      Results follow (highlight to see):
      UTG shows [ Kh, Ah ] a pair of Nines
      CO shows [ Ad, As ] two pairs, Aces and Nines
      Hero shows [ Kd, Ac ] a pair of Nines
      UTG wins $0.63 USD with a pair of Nines.
      CO wins $3.08 USD with two pairs, Aces and Nines.
      CO wins $5.42 USD with two pairs, Aces and Nines.
    • vladnz
      vladnz
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2007 Posts: 1,355
      c/f flop with more then 1 player

      follow the SSS articles
    • Sreteb
      Sreteb
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.09.2007 Posts: 1,587
      @ Vladnz; Not sure if that's supposed to be sarcastic, but where does it say (in the SSS articles) that I could ever call a raise?
      If I strictly follow the articles, I'd have to RR to 1,20 (3 times the raise), with 0,65 left after that, I prefer an AI to get this HU.

      The way I see it, it's almost 50/50 between folding and AI. I really don't see a call as a possibility.

      What is your plan after you call and a RR comes from mr.AA?

      I agree with 90% of the SSS articles and I can see why they should work in the long run. I'm just unsure about these spots. I'm trying to understand why an AI or a R would be +EV here. If it's a coinflip at the best of times.

      Edit: typos... shouldn't type after I just wake up :\
    • Berliner1982
      Berliner1982
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.07.2006 Posts: 5,644
      When you know that he is a Short Stack who doubled up before, a fold is not wrong. If he is a crippled Big Stack a push here is the better move, since against his Raising Range you have at least a Coin Flip and also fold equity, meaning a chance that he will fold.
    • Kknight
      Kknight
      Global
      Joined: 30.04.2007 Posts: 374
      Originally posted by vladnz
      c/f flop with more then 1 player

      follow the SSS articles
      He was all-in preflop...how can he check/fold the flop??? The flop action was between the other two players.
    • vladnz
      vladnz
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2007 Posts: 1,355
      oops i didn't look at the hand properly

      sorry my bad