[NL2-NL10] NL10 FR - QQ, 3bet pot IP, J-high mono flop x C/R

    • Kaabr
      Joined: 20.11.2009 Posts: 91
      Poker Stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - View hand 900114
      The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

      BB: $10.00
      UTG: $30.00
      UTG+1: $13.00
      UTG+2: $2.74
      MP1: $9.23
      MP2: $10.00
      Hero (CO): $10.52
      BTN: $12.70
      SB: $4.80

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with Q :spade: Q :club:
      4 folds, MP2 raises to $0.30, Hero raises to $1, 3 folds, MP2 calls $0.70

      Flop: ($2.15) J :club: 3 :club: 2 :club: (2 players)
      MP2 checks, Hero bets $1.50, MP2 raises to $4, Hero ?

      Villain 12/10/1.5 over 8k hands
      57% fold to 3bet
      c/r 5% no flop

      +-55% equity against any K or A of clubs, 35% against JJ

      Fold or shove?
  • 2 replies
    • Kaabr
      Joined: 20.11.2009 Posts: 91
      Something like it,

      Poker Stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - View hand 900148
      The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

      Hero (SB): $10.64
      BB: $10.00
      UTG: $8.18
      UTG+1: $4.86
      MP1: $17.97
      MP2: $10.05
      CO: $17.83
      BTN: $17.17

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is SB with J :heart: J :club:
      UTG calls $0.10, UTG+1 calls $0.10, 4 folds, Hero raises to $0.70, 1 fold, UTG calls $0.60, 1 fold

      Flop: ($1.60) T :club: 6 :heart: T :diamond: (2 players)
      Hero bets $1, UTG raises to $3.20, Hero ?

      Villain 24/14/2.4, 5% c/r flop
    • MaestroOfZerg
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510


      The fact is that such a tight player could very well have KK+ in that spot and half the time with a big club against which you're 1-outing, this really messes up your equity against his range. Considering we're behind JJ as well and you're not that far ahead of overcard + flushdraw hands, I think it's foldable. Nits are nits, unless you pissed him off beforehand for some reason, chances are he's exactly as strong as his raise says he is.


      Tougher. He's a fish so he could be raising the flop for information with a random pocket pair or just plain screwing with you sometimes. Depending on what I've seen him do before I might do anything:

      - shoving if he's just plain bad and raise/calling crap like pocket pairs/6x just because it's a paired board
      - calling down if he's capable of bluffing and following through with it
      - calling the flop and folding the turn if he's into information raises but I expect him to check back the turn to see a showdown once he found out he's not ahead (it's actually funny to write that sentence since the thinking is wrong on so many levels, but it really is how it happens often)
      - straight up folding the flop if I just don't believe he's messing around often enough. People play a lot of Tx hands so it's not that improbably for him to show up with trips sometimes.

      The sample size would help, as the check/raise flop stat takes quite a while to be accurate. As it is it's pretty standard and usually represents not much than a purely value-oriented check/raising range, so I'd be inclined to either fold the flop when in doubt or call flop and act on the turn depending on whether he's capable of shoving it with his bullshit range or not. If you aren't confident in your predictions about his turn play you're better off folding the flop, you'll burn less money that way.

      Hope it helps.