[NL20-NL50] Am I always behind here on turn? (NL25 SH)

    • MJQuads
      MJQuads
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.01.2008 Posts: 373
      Villian has a 21/4/2.0 (VPIP/PFR/AF), and my question is, am I always behind on turn if situation like this occurs? And was my call therefore wrong?

      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.1/$0.25 No-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)

      Known players:
      SB (Hero):
      $34.06
      BB:
      $24.35
      MP3:
      $29.10
      CO:
      $23.06
      BU:
      $25.00


      Preflop: Hero is SB with A, A.
      2 folds, BU raises to $1.00, Hero raises to $3.00, BB folds, BU calls $2.00.

      Flop: ($6.25) 5, 6, Q (2 players)
      Hero bets $4.75, BU calls $4.75.

      Turn: ($15.75) 7 (2 players)
      Hero bets $9.00, BU raises to $17.25(All-In), Hero calls $8.25.

      River: ($50.25) A (2 players)


      Final Pot: $50.25.

      Results follow:

      Hero shows three of a kind, aces(Ac As).
      BU shows three of a kind, fives(5c 5s).

      Hero wins with three of a kind, aces(Ac As).
  • 6 replies
    • supeyrio
      supeyrio
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.11.2009 Posts: 3,106
      i don't think you can fold here. you beat any Qx, KK. although you may often find yourself crushed against nittier players , you cannot fold after betting the turn as you only need 8bucks to win 50bucks.
    • Targetme
      Targetme
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.05.2009 Posts: 1,888
      Only way to play it
    • MJQuads
      MJQuads
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.01.2008 Posts: 373
      ok thanks for the info guys.

      could anyone explain me the mathematics? if it can be looked from this point of view.

      I mean, I need to pay 8.25$ to win 50.25$, which means 1:6 pot odds. and if I give him this range: 55, 66, AQs, AQo, KQs, KQo, QJs, QJo, QTs, QTo, 57s, 57o my equity is 68,4%.

      What now?
    • supeyrio
      supeyrio
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.11.2009 Posts: 3,106
      Originally posted by Jkob
      ok thanks for the info guys.

      could anyone explain me the mathematics? if it can be looked from this point of view.

      I mean, I need to pay 8.25$ to win 50.25$, which means 1:6 pot odds. and if I give him this range: 55, 66, AQs, AQo, KQs, KQo, QJs, QJo, QTs, QTo, 57s, 57o my equity is 68,4%.

      What now?
      means in the long run against this assumed range, you are expected to win 68.4% of the time. given the odds, you only need 16.42% equity to make a profitable call in the long run
    • MJQuads
      MJQuads
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.01.2008 Posts: 373
      Ah yes, that's how it goes. Thanks for the explanation :)

      Kind Regards,

      Jkob.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Well he can always have there Qx with flushdraw or just AQ that doesn´t want to see scary river card
      I think turn is easy b/c