[NL20-NL50] KK on super wet board NL50

    • supeyrio
      supeyrio
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.11.2009 Posts: 3,106
      villian is tag reg with stats 14/11/3.1. i raised because i wanted to protect from draws. is raise fold the right play? raise get it in? so many two pairs sets combo draws that has us beat.
      i think calling sucks so much because so many cards will kill us. my plan after raising the turn is to lead the turn around half pot and check river, folding to any aggression on any streets. he cbets 60% of the time,. and fold to cbet raise 50% of the time.

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Poker Stars
      SB ($100)
      BB ($23.05)
      UTG ($36.20)
      UTG+1 ($51.50)
      UTG+2 ($50)
      MP1 ($67.20)
      CO ($54.45)
      Hero ($53.25)

      Dealt to Hero K:diamond: K:spade:

      fold, UTG+1 raises to $1.50, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $1.50, fold, fold

      FLOP ($3.75) 8:heart: T:spade: 9:spade:

      UTG+1 bets $2.50, Hero raises to $7.50, UTG+1 raises to $21.50, Hero folds

      UTG+1 wins $17.85
  • 5 replies
    • TetraQuark
      TetraQuark
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.05.2008 Posts: 1,520
      Hi!

      First of all his utg opening range is 22+ AJ+ imo. So preflop is just 3b than go broke. Board is wet yeah, but I strongly doubt he has twopair, sets sometimes. You are slightly ahead FD+overcards or JJ and way ahead QQ.
      So putting things in eq looks something like this
      equity win tie loss hand
      player 1: 37,716% 35,808% 3,817% 60,375% 22+, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs

      player 2: 62,284% 60,375% 3,817% 35,808% KK

      Therefor I am not ever folding, specially cuz you gave up initiative pf so opponent might put you on some weaker hands.
    • supeyrio
      supeyrio
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.11.2009 Posts: 3,106
      question here is would he go broke with QQ, JJ, considering that he should know my go broke range has him beat in so many instances? this board hits my calling range so hard, he should know better
    • TetraQuark
      TetraQuark
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.05.2008 Posts: 1,520
      I dunno the style you play (taggish I assume), but if he is a bit attentative 14/11, he will definitely go broke there with QQ and especially with JJ. There is defenitely much more draws in your range (through his eyes) than made(slowplayed) hands that beat him. But leaving QQ and JJ aside, there is just too many AsJs+(Ok AsKs is out of the question as I mentioned before, but there is AsJx which fills in and I think a 3.1AF would play it the same) hands that I think he is stacking, given the fact that you only called pf.
    • supeyrio
      supeyrio
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.11.2009 Posts: 3,106
      i'm still the dog with 39% equity against AsJs or 46% against AsQs. against his whole range, i'm almost definitely behind i guess. but what do i know, await for judge comments
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I think you can also 3-bet pf, since likely his opening range is quite tight form utg and he would either raise/4-bet or raise/call very often
      I don´t like raise/folding KK. If you raiset you have to call shove,s ince he can shove there any pair+flushdraw that KK is doing fine
      You can ofcourse just call and see what he does on the turn and river and if board doesn´t get too scary then call him down