Issue with gold strategy article on 2nd barrels

    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      Ok, someone help me?

      http://www.pokerstrategy.com/strategy/bss/1608/2/
      (When should you fire a 2nd or 3rd barrel? )

      page 2, first example, it says:

      The ace is an ideal scarecard that we can use for a second barrel in this situation. Let's assume that our opponent will call with AJ and AT and check-raise with 22 or 33. Since he will not always call the flop with AJ or AT, we can further assume that he will do this with exactly half of the possible AJ/AT combinations. For AJo/ATo there are 8 combinations each and 2 for AJs/ATs. Furthermore, 22 is possible and there are 3 combinations for 33.


      I'm struggling to understand the number of AJ/AT+ AJs/ATs combos. I think article is saying there are 20 combinations, which fits because when combined with for combinations of 22/33 = 24 combinations which it says villain won't fold. However, I don't understand how we get 20 combinations.

      AJo = 12 combinations, AJs = 4 combinations
      ATo = 12 combinations, ATs = 4 combinations

      and, if villain folds half of these combinations, as it suggests, we get 6+2 for AJ and 6+2 for AT = 16 total, rather than 20.

      Is it because once we have the board, we discount A :spade: ?

      but then I think it would be:

      AJo = 9 combinations, AJs = 3 combinations
      ATo = 9 combinations, ATs = 3 combinations

      Giving 24 combinations, half of which would be 12

      so, I am sure I'm being stupid but if anyone could point out exactly in what way I am being stupid, that would help. :)

      Thanks
  • 3 replies
    • Bierbaer
      Bierbaer
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2005 Posts: 7,989
      I think you're right, this seems to be a mistake in the article.
      I'll forward this, thx!
    • livelydolphin
      livelydolphin
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.04.2010 Posts: 30
      Given this situation, which method of calculation is correct? Is it 16 cases, or 12 cases because we discounted A :spade: ?

      If that's the case, does it mean we'll always recalculate the combinations once the card (that we initially factor in) hits the board?
    • Hajler
      Hajler
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.10.2008 Posts: 270
      I am a math idiot so I cant comment on any of that stuff, but I re-read a lot of the articles a while back when I started playing again and there are a TON of spelling/grammar errors, so I wouldn't be too surprised if there were mistakes in the numbers as well.

      They Strategy section could really use a read through by an editor because it looks really unprofessional when there are like 20 spelling mistakes in a one page article.

      Just my two cents, sorry for the hijack. :f_p: