[NL20-NL50] nl50 AQs, top pair, flush draw and gut shot

    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
      SB ($104)
      Hero ($50)
      UTG ($20)
      UTG+1 ($50)
      CO ($52.25)
      BTN ($59.10)

      Dealt to Hero A:heart: Q:heart:

      fold, UTG+1 raises to $1.50, CO calls $1.50, fold, fold, Hero calls $1

      FLOP ($4.75) J:heart: T:heart: Q:spade:

      Hero bets $3.25, UTG+1 calls $3.25, CO folds

      TURN ($11.25) J:heart: T:heart: Q:spade: 9:club:

      Hero checks, UTG+1 checks

      RIVER ($11.25) J:heart: T:heart: Q:spade: 9:club: 3:spade:

      Hero bets $6, UTG+1 calls $6

      MP is 24/16/1, 81 hands; CO is 31/17/3, 31 hands. No reads. we could think about squeezing preflop but on the other hand our hand plays quite well multiway, even out of position (?)
      I'm not sure about leading out here. I was thinking that we should be pretty happy about getting it in on the flop and so maybe a donk would induce a raise from the original raiser. On the other hand, maybe a check/raise is better?
      my sweat partner and I were not sure about the turn. I thought if we bet again and got raised (any decent size raise/shove) we would have to fold and give up our equity share, whereas we probably can play check/call and expect to get paid off quite often if villain has Kx or other straight and we hit either :heart: or K.

      my partner prefered to continue with the aggression, since we can better control the size of the turn bet if we make it ourselves.
      can we expect to get called by worse hands with a small value bet on the River? Or should we rather play check/call against missed draws? Or even check/fold?

      Thoughts?

      Thanks
  • 12 replies
    • THESHade
      THESHade
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.03.2010 Posts: 5,418
      PF: its fine, I wuold rahter Squeeze A6s then AQs cause I want to see a flop with this hand

      lead is fine but it shows a lot of strength
      I wouldnbt ch/r cause worst hand that will call u is KQ andeven that may be questionable so donking is fine
      T: I liek ch/c cause he will chbeh with almost everyhand expect Kx
      R: I dont see a value in betting, what do u want u to get called by? Every single hand beats u, really, every single one of them, imagine his range pre, is there a hand that is worse then urs that would call a donkbet on this flop? Oh well, I actually got one , AJ.. but he wont call a river bet , so hope to check it down and if he bets u are beat like 99pecent of the time
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      R: I dont see a value in betting, what do u want u to get called by? Every single hand beats u, really, every single one of them, imagine his range pre, is there a hand that is worse then urs that would call a donkbet on this flop? Oh well, I actually got one , AJ.. but he wont call a river bet , so hope to check it down and if he bets u are beat like 99pecent of the time


      Agree - thanks; good reasoning.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I guess c/c turn is fine. you don´t have to worry about KK/AA that often that you should bet turn and try to get these hands to fold
      b/f river seems fine. he can call you down with worse hands and since he checked back don´t think he has there straight that often and he´d very likely raise flop with two pair
    • THESHade
      THESHade
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.03.2010 Posts: 5,418
      Originally posted by Kaitz20
      I guess c/c turn is fine. you don´t have to worry about KK/AA that often that you should bet turn and try to get these hands to fold
      b/f river seems fine. he can call you down with worse hands and since he checked back don´t think he has there straight that often and he´d very likely raise flop with two pair
      I dont want to offend u BUT what worse hands? I think there is too many hands for u to evaluate with ur A-Game mindset

      MP is 24/16/1 , as I aready said, only worse hands that is left there is AJ and he WONt call R
    • vonki
      vonki
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 18.03.2008 Posts: 6,091
      I'm curious why we would bet river too tbh because we rly beat nothing.

      The few hands we still beat that are in his range won't call a bet and he's likely to almost always check those behind?
    • supeyrio
      supeyrio
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.11.2009 Posts: 3,106
      Originally posted by vonki
      I'm curious why we would bet river too tbh because we rly beat nothing.

      The few hands we still beat that are in his range won't call a bet and he's likely to almost always check those behind?
      i think when he checks behind the turn, there is high probability that he doesn't have a king, since the board is so scary vs our call in blind + donk flop range, and he would have to bet out to get value/protect his hand.
      and we almost always wont have AK since here since we would have squeezed, he should expect himeself to have the nuts with Kx and would want to value/protect from flush/fh draws etc.

      his checkback on turn just shows so much weakness that i would have over bet the river 1.5x pot to put him off his whatever pairs+ since he'll call any below pot size bet anyway as his check behind turn is for pot control/freecard draw.

      we can still fold if he comes over the top, but then this play would just makes little sense and we can make a note.

      so i believe if he called your river bet, he would have turn up with two pair.

      and all the abv is if he's a reasonable poker player.
    • THESHade
      THESHade
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.03.2010 Posts: 5,418
      Originally posted by supeyrio
      Originally posted by vonki
      I'm curious why we would bet river too tbh because we rly beat nothing.

      The few hands we still beat that are in his range won't call a bet and he's likely to almost always check those behind?
      i think when he checks behind the turn, there is high probability that he doesn't have a king, since the board is so scary vs our call in blind + donk flop range, and he would have to bet out to get value/protect his hand.
      and we almost always wont have AK since here since we would have squeezed, he should expect himeself to have the nuts with Kx and would want to value/protect from flush/fh draws etc.

      his checkback on turn just shows so much weakness that i would have over bet the river 1.5x pot to put him off his whatever pairs+ since he'll call any below pot size bet anyway as his check behind turn is for pot control/freecard draw.

      we can still fold if he comes over the top, but then this play would just makes little sense and we can make a note.

      so i believe if he called your river bet, he would have turn up with two pair.

      and all the abv is if he's a reasonable poker player.
      THIS is a solid plan and I agree he doenst have a Khi str8 but he can have 8hi str8(not many combos of that though) + the rest of his range are some kind of Twopairs, but prob not TopTwoPairs cause he would bet them himself (prob.)

      and with this assumption I would even overbet push or at least 2x it and he owuld have hard time calling it even w 8X Str8 and would fold most of his range AND he wouldnt expect us to turn our hand into a bluff so he owuld think his hand is pwned and most prob. fold (unless steaming or smth)

      However, this wouldnt be a value bet as Kaitz suggested...
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      Interesting analysis. He turned up with T :spade: 8 :spade: here.

      If I bet turn, he may be able to fold this if we shove the river. But since we checked the turn on fd bd we don't have a k very often and so I think he may talk himself into a call.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Originally posted by THESHade
      Originally posted by Kaitz20
      I guess c/c turn is fine. you don´t have to worry about KK/AA that often that you should bet turn and try to get these hands to fold
      b/f river seems fine. he can call you down with worse hands and since he checked back don´t think he has there straight that often and he´d very likely raise flop with two pair
      I dont want to offend u BUT what worse hands? I think there is too many hands for u to evaluate with ur A-Game mindset

      MP is 24/16/1 , as I aready said, only worse hands that is left there is AJ and he WONt call R
      Yeah, my mistake. Didn´t notice 4-card straight on the board
      About judging: I think it is not too much work if I judge 1-2 hours per day, but if you think that my decisions are not the best I guess I have to ask volunteer judge to nl 50 forum that he can then evaluate some of my judges that you´re not satisfied. Just want to add that everyone make sometimes mistakes and usually I admit when I´ve judged smt really stupid :D
    • vonki
      vonki
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 18.03.2008 Posts: 6,091
      But KQ and KJ both have a K high straight so we cant vbet against that... :p could you please just look it over again because I think you didnt notice the board (Kx has a straight like we said several times). I think if you did you would change your oppinion!
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Originally posted by vonki
      But KQ and KJ both have a K high straight so we cant vbet against that... :p could you please just look it over again because I think you didnt notice the board (Kx has a straight like we said several times). I think if you did you would change your oppinion!
      yeah, my bad :D
      didn´t notice that board had 4-card straight
      c/f then is quite good option, since likely he won´t call us down worse hands and would not fold better hands
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      Well, we got to the correct answer (which is that I am a :f_grin: ) in the end, so all is okay :)