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[NL2-NL10] AQo from BU

    • konkey
      Joined: 29.12.2009 Posts: 385
      Hand converted with online hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.02/$0.04 No-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)

      Known players:
      BU (Hero):

      Preflop: Hero is BU with A, Q.
      MP3 folds, CO calls $0.04, Hero raises to $0.16, 2 folds, CO calls $0.12.

      Flop: ($0.38) K, J, Q (2 players)
      CO checks, Hero bets $0.28, CO calls $0.28.

      Turn: ($0.94) 2 (2 players)
      CO checks, Hero checks.

      River: ($0.94) 5 (2 players)
      CO bets $0.60, Hero calls $0.60.

      Final Pot: $2.14.
      Did I play it correctly?
      I checked turn for bluff induction. CO was playing at 34/4, flop AF 0.2, tunr AF 0.6, river AF infinite over 78 hands.
  • 2 replies
    • MaestroOfZerg
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510

      AF stats are very tricky to interpret correctly once you start getting into multiple-level logic, so I tend not to base my play on them too much especially for small samples of hands, and when I do, my trust in his AF stats decreases the closer to the river we get. The flop AF is more reliable than the turn AF, which beats the hell out of the river AF.

      AF = (bets + raises) / calls. Like here his AF stats might mean stuff as different as

      - he's folding almost everything on the flop except monsters with which he always takes a call call bet line

      - he folded most of the time on the flop or on the turn after check/calling, except one hand, which he happened to hit the nuts on the river with so he took a call call bet line

      - he's a huge calling station that calls the flop and turn with everything just to always fold on the river unless he has the nuts in which case he bets out

      - he's a huge calling station that calls the flop and turn with anything and always bluffs at the river no matter what

      This is somewhat inaccurate in spots since I don't want to do the maths and find the exact ratios, but you get the picture. Different playstyles, close AF stats.

      Here mostly 78 is too low to trust AF stats much, so I'd base my play on the fact that he's bad and doesn't raise much preflop, which makes me inclined to think he's probably not going to bet a lot postflop either. Thus I'd bet for value on the turn again when in doubt because I'm pretty sure a 34/4 calls the turn against with everything that has a piece of the flop, instead of trying to induce bluffs from a guy who might not ever bluff at me.

      Hope it helps.
    • nathanrenard
      Joined: 09.02.2009 Posts: 830
      I thought it was interesting that you've took a note on the AF with that small sample and checked the turn to induce a bluff from a guy who looks like a fish that mostly won't bet/raise you.

      I think here the best option is to fire a second barrel on the turn to avoid villain to catch a card if he's drawing with some kind of Ax or maybe a spade flush draw.