This is a hand i posted in the hand eval forums. The question in this hand is not about my play, but an interesting call to my shove from a reg that i have tagged as being really solid.

Grabbed by

Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $600(BB) Replayer

SB ($1,285)

BB ($4,735)

CO ($710)

Hero ($6,770)

Dealt to Hero J

8

fold,

Hero raises to $6,770 (AI), SB calls $985 (AI), fold

Villain called with

**A** **8**
So i plugged the numbers into my excel ICM bubble calculator sheet and found that for SB, he will have 15.69% equity if he folds and 27.22% equity if he calls and wins. This means that he will need 57.64% equity against my range to call here. (15.69/27.22=0.5764).

Against a random range: Equilator says 55+,A3s,K8s+,Q9s+,A5o+,K9o+,QJo have the required equity (This is quite similar to the Nash range of 18.4%, 55+ A4s+ A7o+ K9s+ KTo+ QTs+, which makes sense since Nash prescribes a 100% range for me).

But than the tricky part about this hand it, ICM style analysis disregards future game considerations as <3 rightly pointed out in the

thread i put up the hand We can still outfold the CO who will be all in with 110 chips in the SB if he folds the BB.

So I'm going to attempt to model this... have absolutely no clue if this is going to be correct or not.

(We = SB after this)

So lets make a few assumptions here: The only person who is gaining chips in any of the situations which we fold is the big stack on BU now. So we assume he is the only one doing the pushing.

Assuming we are the small blind, this is what happens to our equity after the next hand if we fold

- if we fold and shortie doubles 12.71%

- if we fold and shortie loses 23.79%

- if we fold and shortie folds 21.85%

- if we fold and shortie gets a walk 14.53%

This is the equity for calling now

if we call and win 27.22%

if we call and lose 0%

Lets say:

- theres a 10% chance the shortie gets a walk the next hand.

- theres a 10% chance he folds to a push

- theres a 40% theres a push and he calls and wins

- theres a 40% chance he calls and loses

So out equity if we fold, and after the next game plays outs is:

0.1(0.1453) + 0.1(0.2185) + 0.4(0.1271) + 0.4(0.2379) = 0.1824 = 18.24%

So substituting this for the equity of if we fold without modelling the next hand.

The equity we need become 67.01% (18.24/27.22)

Against a random range, we need 88+ AKs+ to get enough equity to call.

I have no clue is this method of calculation is correct, but it sorta makes sense to me. The probabilities i assumed are also pretty arbritary. So, caveat emptor.