$0.25/$0.5 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)This hand I will analyze because I find it very interesting.
- BU (Hero):
Preflop: Hero is BU with Q, A.
UTG1 raises to $1.75, 5 folds, Hero calls $1.75, 2 folds, BB folds.
Flop: ($4.25) T, J, 6 (2 players)
UTG1 bets $3.00, Hero calls $3.00.
Turn: ($10.25) K (2 players)
UTG1 bets $4.00, Hero calls $4.00.
River: ($18.25) 9 (2 players)
UTG1 bets $8.00, Hero raises to $23.00, UTG1 raises to $38.00, Hero calls $15.00.
Final Pot: $94.25.
Villain is a 17/14 player, seems decent. He has 90% cbet. 2k hands
He raises 9% from EP and I'm ahead of the looser 5% of the hands he plays with my AQo. So a call preflop is not so bad after all.
Looking at the big picture, I made one big mistake, a unforgivable one... calling the river 3bet Only the nut flush would raise there. I saw in the last moment that I had a straight and instantly leveled myself into calling... the thing is that there I'm always against a flush, considering the line I took.
Now let's start at the beginning, the Flop. Villain cbet 90%, I don't want to raise because if he has a diamond he would be inclined to call or raise(also +made hand), so I decide here on the flop I'm gonna call 2 streets (if a diamond comes) and bluff raise the river.
Turn, diamond comes, villain bets, I follow my plan. River comes a blank, villain bets (very probable with a small-medium flush) and I raise. But he 3bets, now I'm dead so I should fold.
Now the beautiful, learning & improving part:
Flop is ok for me.
Turn, here things gets interesting. Villain only bets aprox 1/2 pot - this is either the nut flush (which want to get more value, without scaring other smaller flushes) or a desperate 2nd barrel w/o a flush. A medium or small flush I think would bet more, but we can't get them out of the equation. Knowing this, a raise on the turn would be ok only if I think I have enough fold equity to make small and medium flushed fold. And I don't think I have that given the size of the bet. So I call with the intention of representing an slowplayed A of diamonds.
River, blank comes. Villain bets again around 1/2 pot. We can presume that he always has a flush here, because non flush hands would give up, given my calls on this board. So he either has the A of diamonds, or another smaller diamond (7-9, Q). The question now is, can we make this flushes fold? I think yes, with a big raise we can rep an A.
I would also like some opinions here, can we make smaller flushes fold there on the river with a raise? [take in consideration that there's no flow to the game/ no image to you - this is rush]
Let's look at the math part: hands that villain could have with a diamond: 77,88,99, QQ, AA, AK, AQ, AJ, KQ.
We will presume that 77-99, QQ, AQ and KQ would fold to a decent raise on the river. AA, AK, AQ (A of diamonds and royal), AJ would call.
So we have 16 combinations that would fold to a raise (9 from the 3 pairs, +2 +2 +3) and 11 comb that would raise (2+3+1+2+3). Theoretically we are winning with a raise 2 time from 3.
A minrase on the River would not generate any FE, so we have to raise bigger. The pot is $25 (rake taken) after the $8 bet from villain. If we raise to $25 we would lose $25 1/3 of the time and win $25(the pot) 2/3... that's $25 profit. It seems that even if we are not able to make the non nut flush fold everytime we could still have a steady profit with a raise on the river in the long term.
Another line would be to raise on the Turn, but I don't think we have as much fold equity, plus we get more info on the river with a call.