[NL20-NL50] NL50 FR AQs coldcalled ip

    • Gabinr1
      Gabinr1
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.04.2009 Posts: 7,755
      $0.25/$0.5 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)

      Known players:
      UTG1:
      $50.00
      UTG2:
      $43.50
      MP1:
      $28.40
      MP2:
      $49.50
      MP3:
      $20.35
      CO:
      $50.00
      BU (Hero):
      $58.05
      SB:
      $65.35
      BB:
      $78.70


      Preflop: Hero is BU with Q, A.
      UTG1 raises to $1.75, 5 folds, Hero calls $1.75, 2 folds, BB folds.

      Flop: ($4.25) T, J, 6 (2 players)
      UTG1 bets $3.00, Hero calls $3.00.

      Turn: ($10.25) K (2 players)
      UTG1 bets $4.00, Hero calls $4.00.

      River: ($18.25) 9 (2 players)
      UTG1 bets $8.00, Hero raises to $23.00, UTG1 raises to $38.00, Hero calls $15.00.

      Final Pot: $94.25.
      This hand I will analyze because I find it very interesting.


      Villain is a 17/14 player, seems decent. He has 90% cbet. 2k hands

      He raises 9% from EP and I'm ahead of the looser 5% of the hands he plays with my AQo. So a call preflop is not so bad after all.


      Looking at the big picture, I made one big mistake, a unforgivable one... calling the river 3bet :f_biggrin: Only the nut flush would raise there. I saw in the last moment that I had a straight and instantly leveled myself into calling... the thing is that there I'm always against a flush, considering the line I took.

      Now let's start at the beginning, the Flop. Villain cbet 90%, I don't want to raise because if he has a diamond he would be inclined to call or raise(also +made hand), so I decide here on the flop I'm gonna call 2 streets (if a diamond comes) and bluff raise the river.

      Turn, diamond comes, villain bets, I follow my plan. River comes a blank, villain bets (very probable with a small-medium flush) and I raise. But he 3bets, now I'm dead so I should fold.


      Now the beautiful, learning & improving part:
      Flop is ok for me.

      Turn, here things gets interesting. Villain only bets aprox 1/2 pot - this is either the nut flush (which want to get more value, without scaring other smaller flushes) or a desperate 2nd barrel w/o a flush. A medium or small flush I think would bet more, but we can't get them out of the equation. Knowing this, a raise on the turn would be ok only if I think I have enough fold equity to make small and medium flushed fold. And I don't think I have that given the size of the bet. So I call with the intention of representing an slowplayed A of diamonds.

      River, blank comes. Villain bets again around 1/2 pot. We can presume that he always has a flush here, because non flush hands would give up, given my calls on this board. So he either has the A of diamonds, or another smaller diamond (7-9, Q). The question now is, can we make this flushes fold? I think yes, with a big raise we can rep an A.

      I would also like some opinions here, can we make smaller flushes fold there on the river with a raise? [take in consideration that there's no flow to the game/ no image to you - this is rush]


      Let's look at the math part: hands that villain could have with a diamond: 77,88,99, QQ, AA, AK, AQ, AJ, KQ.

      We will presume that 77-99, QQ, AQ and KQ would fold to a decent raise on the river. AA, AK, AQ (A of diamonds and royal), AJ would call.

      So we have 16 combinations that would fold to a raise (9 from the 3 pairs, +2 +2 +3) and 11 comb that would raise (2+3+1+2+3). Theoretically we are winning with a raise 2 time from 3.

      A minrase on the River would not generate any FE, so we have to raise bigger. The pot is $25 (rake taken) after the $8 bet from villain. If we raise to $25 we would lose $25 1/3 of the time and win $25(the pot) 2/3... that's $25 profit. It seems that even if we are not able to make the non nut flush fold everytime we could still have a steady profit with a raise on the river in the long term.


      Another line would be to raise on the Turn, but I don't think we have as much fold equity, plus we get more info on the river with a call.

      ---------------

      Thoughts?
  • 1 reply
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I think too many bad cards could come to your hand that you should continue with AQ that hand. I like folding turn, since players usually has there flush and you can´t be really sure he is barreling turn, so he can easily take just c/c line
      You may raise river but fold to shove. No player isn´t that sick that would rebluff you on the river