[NL2-NL10] NL200: Middle set gets checkreraised

    • Timor83
      Timor83
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.06.2007 Posts: 2,793
      Known players: (for a description of vp$ip, pfr, ats, folded bb, af, wts, wsd or hands click here)     
      Position:
      Stack
      MP2:
      $342.35
      MP3:
      $171
      Hero:
      $317.10

      1/2 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.7 by www.pokerstrategy.cc.

      Preflop: Hero is CO with 7:club: , 7:diamond:
      2 folds, MP2 calls $2.00, MP3 raises to $6.00, Hero calls $6.00, 3 folds, MP2 calls $4.00.

      Flop: ($21.00) T:diamond: , 6:spade: , 7:heart: (3 players)
      MP2 checks, MP3 bets $19, Hero raises to $50.00, MP2 raises to $120.00, MP3 folds, Hero calls $70.00.

      Turn: ($280.00) J:spade: (2 players)
      MP2 bets $80, Hero raises to $191.10 (All-In), MP2 calls $111.10.

      River: ($662.20) 8:heart:


      Final Pot: $662.20

      When Villain reraised the flop, I had a strong feeling that I was beat. He couldn't have T's because he would've raised them preflop, so I was putting him on either 89 or a set of 6's. Should I fold the turn?
  • 7 replies
    • Puschkin81
      Puschkin81
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.04.2006 Posts: 4,786
      Hi Timor83!

      I wouldn't fold a set here. Even if he has a straight, you have enough outs to a full house. But he can also raise an overpair, two pair, pair plus straight draw or a lower set. Get your money in :D

      Good luck at the tables!
      Puschkin81
    • Mephisto87
      Mephisto87
      Black
      Joined: 19.02.2006 Posts: 4,176
      push flop after reraise from villain
    • SonicXT
      SonicXT
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2007 Posts: 4,736
      Why actually ?
      He fears a straight only, so if he pushes all-in when the straight is already made, what difference would that make ?
      To be honest, the board doesn't look all that dangerous ? Of all 1081 possible card combinations, only 6 would beat him (excluding the set of 10's he excluded himself because of the non reraise preflop), which are all the 89 combinations.

      There are no possible flush or outside straight draws on the board, so I feel like his raise is the best thing he could have done. He couldn't have accounted for the 89 at the flop itself, which is at around 0.555 % odds. There is a possible inside straight draw, but I feel his reraise accounted for that. The safe turn card would warrant an all-in, even if the odds of the other guy having 89 have raised to 0.58 %. Even if you account for the 5 % preflop raises that guy made in the past encouters, the odds of a better hands (89 or TT) wouldn't go over 1.2 %

      He just fealt it right, but didn't have the odds to fold which was his ondoing, in my opinion. Just unlucky.
    • Mephisto87
      Mephisto87
      Black
      Joined: 19.02.2006 Posts: 4,176
      when villain reraises u only have option .

      1. u belive that he has the straight then fold ( plz never do this)

      2. u got all your money in to got the maximum payout from him when he had 2 pair lower set or draws on gutshot maybe. also you want to have money from overpairs.

      there is only one hand that had beat u! from all other hand u want the money and u want it on the flop. there are many cards that kill the action!

      also prolem is that the pot on turn is so big that u must call any bet on turn.


      i hope u can live with my fish english hihi :)
    • Timor83
      Timor83
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.06.2007 Posts: 2,793
      I ruled out the overpairs in this analysis as well, because they would've probably limp-reraised before the flop. Bottom 2 pair is also an option but less likely because there are already 3 7's in the game. So realistically it's only a question of 89 or 66, because he's a solid player. The problem is my instincts were right. I know the results of the hand are irrelevant, but hey, if you make the correct analysis and still lose a big pot because "the book" says to get all the money in, it's kind of frustrating :)
    • Timor83
      Timor83
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.06.2007 Posts: 2,793
      I agree to not fold the turn though, a better question would be: "should I fold the flop?".
    • Mephisto87
      Mephisto87
      Black
      Joined: 19.02.2006 Posts: 4,176
      Originally posted by Timor83
      I agree to not fold the turn though, a better question would be: "should I fold the flop?".
      u can never fold when der is only one or two hands that beats u. TT and 89.

      when he have some of this hands then its unlucky but most times he will have two pair , overpair or just tptk.