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Folding War Basics

    • kiromanAAKK
      Joined: 08.10.2009 Posts: 4,022
      Hi Coach,
      first of all I would like thank you very much for the great videos rich of important notions.

      I have miss-understood or maybe just misinterpreted something, so I will really appreciate if you can clarify the point where the two big stack are on SB and BB (aprox min 18). In fact, in the tab there is a push ATC and BB may make a profitable call with a 2% that simplify to TT+(accord to the Nash calculator obviously) with an equity needed of 71.64% of call.

      Now, you said (or at least I have understood with my broken English :D ) that even if BB will call large of what Nash suggest (AQ or AK) pushing here is still profitable. But if we assume that we are one of the dominant stack and we have two players under us with a great risk of bust out then us, is it against other concepts here push ATC and risk finish the tournament while other short stack will benefit out it?
      Also, I would like ask, are this concept applicable to games with buy-in under $10 where the majority of the players doesn't understand a lot about the math, the equilibrium and the bubble factor properly?

      Once again, thank you for your great work :heart:
  • 4 replies
    • pzhon
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      Yes, if the other big stack calls too widely, it may still be best to push a 100% range. Pushing with 72o (worst when you will be called with a tight range) should be very profitable against a Nash JJ+ caller, but still profitable against someone calling too loosely with AQo+ 88+.

      SNG Wizard does not let you choose the calling range exactly, but it is a useful tool for this type of analysis. If you set up the stacks 1500/1500/5250/5250 with blinds of 250/500, then give the small blind 72o, you can see how much SNG Wizard believes you will gain or lose by pushing for each percentage range you give the big blind.

      Against 2.5%, QQ+ AKs: Pushing gains 1.22% (about 10% of a buy-in)
      Against 5.9%, 88+ AJs+ AQo: Pushing gains 0.29% (over 2% of a buy-in)

      If you click on the green and red rectangle next to the call %, SNG Wizard will graph the equity gained as a function of how widely the big blind calls. It looks like the break-even point is at about a 7.5% calling range.

      You can use my program ICM Explorer to analyze the reward:risk ratio. If you steal the blinds, you gain 1.92%. If you bust out, you lose 33.12%. That means even if you had no equity when called, pushing would be better than folding as long as the chance to get called is at most 1.92/35.04 = 5.5%. The difference between this and SNG Wizard's 7.5% comes from the chance that your 72o draws out on the very strong hand which calls you.

      You would prefer that the big blind know to fold AK, but as long as he is not calling too widely, it is still a profitable push with 72o and therefore with any other hand.

      At any level, the average result is to lose. Many players do not properly understand the risk aversion in high stakes games, and many players are quite risk-averse in microstakes games. You will see a few more crazy calls in low stakes games, but do not assume that this means your opponents all call like that. When a some players understand the risk aversion and some do not, the average calling range does respond to the changes in risk aversion, just not as much as it should, and it does help to understand the risk aversion when you are pushing.

      Of course, you also want to understand how risk-averse you should be when you have a chance to call all-in.
    • Hlynkinn
      Joined: 14.06.2008 Posts: 4,998
      just want to add that when we are so far in a sng we should know by now which players understand the concept of ICM and understand their risk factors...

      There are a lot of players especially on the lower limits which we should not shove ATC into... because they'll simply not understand how much they are loosing by calling with something they think is slightly ahead of our range or whatever...

      Also if we push here we take the chip lead and this makes our edge and equity of prize poll even bigger than the numbers phzon gives us :)
      If our opponent understands his risk factors here we can profitably shove ATC.. and if he folds.. we can keep on shoving ATC for infinite amount of hands until the stack sizes change :)
    • kiromanAAKK
      Joined: 08.10.2009 Posts: 4,022
      Sorry mate, instead I think that it is more dangerous to push ATC a reg that know the ICM and he is tended to call as quit more wide then a random player that are usually playing by the strength of the cards they hold and so the calling range is a bit more tight for that.
      Thx :heart:
    • 8979687
      Joined: 11.11.2008 Posts: 2,225
      Originally posted by kiromanAAKK
      Sorry mate, instead I think that it is more dangerous to push ATC a reg that know the ICM and he is tended to call as quit more wide then a random player that are usually playing by the strength of the cards they hold and so the calling range is a bit more tight for that.
      Thx :heart:
      on the bubble, a solid player knows to fold AKos against an ATC shove when he is closely stacked to
      the big stack who is pushing into him with the shorty about to bust. A bad player calls risking their
      whole tournament life and yours when folding gurantees getting paid and maintaining a large second
      stack for 3 handed play which is better than busting 4th to a suckout from the ATC push.