[NL20-NL50] NL25 SH - AA value

    • StaticMoth
      StaticMoth
      Silver
      Joined: 22.05.2009 Posts: 2,642
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.1/$0.25 No-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)

      Known players:
      BU (Hero):
      $26.41
      SB:
      $24.05
      BB:
      $29.54
      MP3:
      $28.94
      CO:
      $8.40


      Preflop: Hero is BU with A, A.
      2 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, SB calls $0.65, BB folds.

      Flop: ($1.75) 2, 8, 8 (2 players)
      SB bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50.

      Turn: ($4.75) Q (2 players)
      SB bets $2.00, Hero calls $2.00.

      River: ($8.75) 9 (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero checks.

      Final Pot: $8.75.


      Villain - 67/20/AF 1.7/River AF 1.0

      He has a wide range, so he could easily have an 8x or a FD on the flop, so I assume way ahead/way behind and just call, T is also standard call, but my question is about river play actually.

      Could I find ultrathin value here, since he's only gonna raise me when I'm beat (river AF 1.0 and 0% check raise so far over 51 hands) or is the sample size too small to rely on these numbers and the board too scary, and I should be happy to just take it to showdown?
  • 2 replies
    • SPwoodrose
      SPwoodrose
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.01.2010 Posts: 87
      I don't see him check raising the river too often after leading out flop and turn... After you called twice he has to assume that you check behind more often than you bet, so he's betting all his monsters a third time and check/calling his weaker made hands.

      The question ofc is whether we get value from worse, or are we always beat when he calls. He's probably not checking a flush, but he might check an 8 if he puts you on a flush or a boat. He calls us (maybe) with TT, JJ, KK, which he mostly raises pre, and Qx (which he doesn't have often, unless this player is capable of donk-betting the flop as a bluff with overcards).

      If it were me I'd probably take the showdown. If you're confident that he never checks an 8, or check/raises the river, then a bet is obviously fine.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I think he would very often either c/c or c/f river
      Don´t see him going c/r after betting flop and turn
      So I´d prefer river valuebet to 5$