Variance hurts so bad

    • igrbavac
      igrbavac
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.10.2009 Posts: 19
      I dont want to moan or anything... I just would like to know did anyone ever win 2/17 coinflips preflop , and won 4/34 preflop all ins where in average was 54,67% favourite in a day?
      I managed to do that today :( (

      I'm a winning player (s&g turbos) overall but if I was running just as math said I should I would have had tons of money by now. But I'm so under all in EV that it hurts so bad ...

      This happend on FTP.
      I have all the hands recorded, you just couldnt belive your eyes ...
      Lost 15 coinflips in a row, hands like AK vs 66 or viceversa (chance for that is 0,003%)...
  • 3 replies
    • elhh82
      elhh82
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.09.2008 Posts: 6,838
      Think of the long run. Imagine when your EV evens out. You will win 15/17 flips and the variance will feel sooooooo sweet.
    • igrbavac
      igrbavac
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.10.2009 Posts: 19
      I lost hope that will ever happen but thank you very much for the support :)

      Standard story goes like this : I make it to ITM or at the bubble as a chipleader and then the shoving starts. If I try to enter an all in situation I loose 80% of the times. Last two hands (15 min ago) I lost AA vs 46s and AQ vs Q5s, he flopped the flush.

      I shoved from SB since I was the chipleader and he was 2nd in chips (slightly less then me). It was bubble so without premium hand he shouldnt call, and blinds were well worth it. But he thought about it for a few seconds and calls with Q5s vs mine AQ and flops a flush...

      You see, the problem is I started to feel terrified of shoving and it now hurts my A game cause in late stage very aggressive play brings you the best results. But I know if I get called I'll loose.
      Statistics are by now pretty sick on couple of thousand tourneys sample, I just run so under EV it's really dissapointing :(

      I really hope things start to go my way already cause this lasts too long now...
    • ihufa
      ihufa
      Gold
      Joined: 18.03.2008 Posts: 3,323
      I've had a day like this too




      the next day the same thing happened :s_confused: :f_confused: :f_eek: :s_confused: :f_confused: ;) ;( :s_biggrin: :s_frown: :s_cool: :f_biggrin: :f_cool: :] :f_confused: :f_grin: :s_mad: :f_o: :s_o: :s_o: :f_p: :s_love: :f_love: :s_evil: :s_confused: