[NL20-NL50] NL25 SH - KQ 3bet pot bluff shove

    • StaticMoth
      StaticMoth
      Silver
      Joined: 22.05.2009 Posts: 2,642
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.1/$0.25 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)

      Known players:
      CO:
      $25.00
      BU:
      $26.75
      SB (Hero):
      $37.26
      BB:
      $26.63
      MP2:
      $21.50
      MP3:
      $25.00


      Preflop: Hero is SB with K, Q.
      MP2 folds, MP3 raises to $1.00, CO calls $1.00, BU folds, Hero raises to $4.00, 2 folds, CO calls $3.00.

      Flop: ($9.25) 5, T, 8 (2 players)
      Hero bets $4.26, CO calls $4.26.

      Turn: ($17.77) T (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO checks.

      River: ($17.77) 7 (2 players)
      Hero bets $17.77, CO calls $16.74.

      Final Pot: $52.28.

      Results follow:

      Hero shows a pair of tens(Kh Qc).
      CO shows two pairs, aces and tens(As Ac).

      CO wins with two pairs, aces and tens(As Ac).


      Villain - 25/16/3bet 8.6%/AF 2.5/Foldvs3bet: 50%/FoldvsFCbet: 50%

      Does this play make any sense? Or am I the donk here? :f_biggrin:
  • 5 replies
    • StaticMoth
      StaticMoth
      Silver
      Joined: 22.05.2009 Posts: 2,642
      Sorry, wrong subforum :f_biggrin:
    • EagleStar88
      EagleStar88
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.10.2008 Posts: 7,359
      Moved, no problem.


      Bart
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,402
      Does this play make any sense?


      well, first you need to give him a range of hands he will hold on the flop. He calls IP and then calls a 3b Sqz from the blinds. then you need to give him a narrower range of hands that he calls your flop bet with. the stats don't mean much without knowing how many hands, but villain looks like a regular to me. overall once he calls your 3b and cb on this board I think his range is pretty strong and I don't think 1/2ps cb and river shove will get him to fold much of anything.

      Once you check on the turn I think it's pretty hard for you to represent much on the river. If you had an over pair, you probably would bet the turn as well, for value (and protection against 2 flush draws). If you had ATs or another Tx, again you would bet it since if villain called the flop he is probably calling turn as well.

      So the only hand you can really represent is a flush that you checked on the turn. I think if you had a flush draw on the flop you would most likely bet more because you only have a draw and you want your opponent to fold. So your small flop bet looks like a junk hand that missed and is just making an "automatic" cbet (this is what your opponent will definitely conclude when you don't second barrel the turn). so when you suddenly bet the River "out of nowhere" it looks like you just bet the obvious scare card, and I think you could expect to get looked up quite often.
    • StaticMoth
      StaticMoth
      Silver
      Joined: 22.05.2009 Posts: 2,642
      Thanks for the thorough reply.

      Originally posted by Tim64
      the stats don't mean much without knowing how many hands
      Just 77 hands

      Though if that Q of mine would've been a :heart: as well, I think I would've played it the same.

      If he has an overpair, which I'm putting him on, then it doesn't make much difference if I bet 1/2 pot or 2/3 pot, he'd be calling/raising anyway - so I keep my (semi)bluffs cheaper - so my weakish cbetting and checking the T should look exactly like a FD imo?

      If I 2nd barrel, that would look like I have an overpair as well, but an underpair to his AA and he would never lay down on the river (unless a Q or a K falls MAYBE), he'd happily just call me down.

      But checking the turn and shoving the river looks a lot more like a draw and should give me a whole lot more FE?!
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      although you were likely going to play that way your set, maybe trips, sometimes overpairs players would likely not give you credit having there flush, since they expect you to shove most flushdraws on the turn. So if he has there hand that has showdown value, like 99 or 89 I don´t expect if he calls. You´re just not reping too many things. if you decide to bluff then 11$ "valuebet" looks likely scarier to him than shove.