Prove to me poker isn't luck No 2

    • Donmecon
      Donmecon
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.05.2010 Posts: 38
      Yesterday I wrote an article asking people to come up with a reason why they think poker isn't just pure luck. I didn't read one answer that showed there was any element of skill. Proving there is luck, whether it be good or bad is easy, but proving there is skill is impossible.

      What is skill ?

      Lets say you hold 77 and raised pre-flop - now that isn't skill - and you got one caller. The the flop came Jh 9c 5h what would you do. Of course a continuation bet - now that isn't skill - Your opponent calls. The next card out is the 8s , You have a possible straight if a 6 hits and if a 7 hits a set so 6 cards can help on the river. Your opponent may have a larger pair or two pair or a set or he may have a flush draw it is impossible to tell. Some of you may think Phil Ivey would know, well your deluded. He is human like you and me and wouldn't have a clue.

      Now what do we do. We could bet and hope they fold. We could check and if they check get a free card or we could check and if they bet fold or come over the top. Who knows what to do, I certainly don't !

      With a possible straight or set I think a bet is the choice - now that's not skill -...lets say half the pot, he calls. The river is the As

      Now what do we do. If he was on a flush draw he is busted but apart from that it looks grim. Thing is do we want to risk more chips on another bet or do we just give up. A large bet may get them off their hand as I could be holding a straight or set or two pair myself. He hasn't a clue !

      Lets say I decide give up and check and he also checks. He turns over Ah 3h. Ahhhhhhh

      He was on a flush draw but fluked the ace on the river.

      So there it is no skill in any part of that hand. Just bad luck for me and good luck for them !

      I have bored you all enough now on this topic. Now go and play poker and by the way good luck !
  • 30 replies
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      Dude, would you feel offended if I say that you have no idea what skill is? I guess so, but I'm still gonna say it: You have no idea what skill is and you should fill up your accounts and play as many tables as possible, maybe even some HU against me. I would gladly be Hero in that situation every time and I would win money from you. I hope you never change your opinion about poker and convince as many people as possible poker is a game of pure luck. Too many start reading about strategy in poker and that is bad for the 'aquarium'.

      Cheers!
    • neznanec21
      neznanec21
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.12.2009 Posts: 34
      Prove to me that poker isn't skill.
    • taavi1337
      taavi1337
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.05.2009 Posts: 2,920
      Originally posted by Donmecon
      Yesterday I wrote an article asking people to come up with a reason why they think poker isn't just pure luck. I didn't read one answer that showed there was any element of skill.
      You wanted a proof that poker isn't just luck. I proved what you wanted. Twice. You didn't even mention the word "skill" in the previous thread, how were we supposed to know that you wanted us to prove its existance?

      On the other hand, I haven't seen any reasonable proof from you that poker is only luck. Please?

      You can now create a third thread about the same topic. I believe you can create 10 threads in a day.
    • elhh82
      elhh82
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.09.2008 Posts: 6,838
      This is like those discussions where religious people say: prove to me that there is no God, if you can't then there is a God. While the other side says, prove to me that there is a god, or there is none.

      I suggest you do this:

      1. Find some money, a lot of it
      2. Challenge a really good (or as you would like to believe, really lucky) player to heads-up matches.
      3. Play like 1,000,000 of them so the luck factor evens out.
      4. If you end up being about break even then poker is probably just luck.
      5. If you get completely crushed, then it was his skill that took you out.
    • zamoda
      zamoda
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.03.2009 Posts: 509
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=myfhIxRPNmQ
    • Termi8r
      Termi8r
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.02.2008 Posts: 408
      Most people assume poker is skill so we try to win...

      Ask yourself is it possible to lose deliberately...yes imo.

      Is possible to lose deliberately in flipping coins?
    • joecar
      joecar
      Silver
      Joined: 09.04.2008 Posts: 347
      prove to me that your sane
    • JuiceQuadre
      JuiceQuadre
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.10.2008 Posts: 2,688
      I wish i had strength to reply to that post
    • elhh82
      elhh82
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.09.2008 Posts: 6,838
      Originally posted by Termi8r
      Most people assume poker is skill so we try to win...

      Ask yourself is it possible to lose deliberately...yes imo.

      Is possible to lose deliberately in flipping coins?
      when i try to let my girlfriend win at coinflips, i bet on the coin standing on its side when it lands. I still win sometimes tho.
    • ipo44
      ipo44
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.04.2010 Posts: 26
      If you don't have skills in poker its sure that you can't win in the long run.
      If you have the skills definitely you can win in the long run only if you are also lucky!
      That's why only a 10-15% are the winners players. In fact the percentage of skilled players is much more than 15%. I would say about 50% or even more.
      In our days all of you have noticed how rare is to find fishes at the tables. I mean in a 9 p table you feel ok if you find tow fishes as the rest play just like you.

      The other fact is that poker industry (poker sites etc.) gives an emphasis to skill for promoting the game and attract more customers/players.

      Sorry for my bad english :(
    • redskwerl
      redskwerl
      Black
      Joined: 03.03.2008 Posts: 3,802
      oops i fail
    • badmouth
      badmouth
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.05.2009 Posts: 4
      http://www.pokertableratings.com/share_graph.php?name=nanonoko&nicename=Career%20Timeline&site=stars&url=/graphs/n/nanonoko/timeline-stars.png



      HE'S SO LUCKY .

      lol
    • ipo44
      ipo44
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.04.2010 Posts: 26
      Originally posted by badmouth
      http://www.pokertableratings.com/share_graph.php?name=nanonoko&nicename=Career%20Timeline&site=stars&url=/graphs/n/nanonoko/timeline-stars.png



      HE'S SO LUCKY .

      lol
      http://www.pokertableratings.com/graphs/n/nanonoko/timeline-fulltilt.png

      HE"S SO UNLUCKY

      lol
    • neznanec21
      neznanec21
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.12.2009 Posts: 34
      Originally posted by badmouth
      http://www.pokertableratings.com/share_graph.php?name=nanonoko&nicename=Career%20Timeline&site=stars&url=/graphs/n/nanonoko/timeline-stars.png



      HE'S SO LUCKY .

      lol
      now that's a long luck streak.
    • noclaninator
      noclaninator
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.12.2008 Posts: 312
      Originally posted by Donmecon
      Yesterday I wrote an article asking people to come up with a reason why they think poker isn't just pure luck. I didn't read one answer that showed there was any element of skill. Proving there is luck, whether it be good or bad is easy, but proving there is skill is impossible.

      What is skill ?

      Lets say you hold 77 and raised pre-flop - now that isn't skill - and you got one caller. The the flop came Jh 9c 5h what would you do. Of course a continuation bet - now that isn't skill - Your opponent calls. The next card out is the 8s , You have a possible straight if a 6 hits and if a 7 hits a set so 6 cards can help on the river. Your opponent may have a larger pair or two pair or a set or he may have a flush draw it is impossible to tell. Some of you may think Phil Ivey would know, well your deluded. He is human like you and me and wouldn't have a clue.

      Now what do we do. We could bet and hope they fold. We could check and if they check get a free card or we could check and if they bet fold or come over the top. Who knows what to do, I certainly don't !

      With a possible straight or set I think a bet is the choice - now that's not skill -...lets say half the pot, he calls. The river is the As

      Now what do we do. If he was on a flush draw he is busted but apart from that it looks grim. Thing is do we want to risk more chips on another bet or do we just give up. A large bet may get them off their hand as I could be holding a straight or set or two pair myself. He hasn't a clue !

      Lets say I decide give up and check and he also checks. He turns over Ah 3h. Ahhhhhhh

      He was on a flush draw but fluked the ace on the river.

      So there it is no skill in any part of that hand. Just bad luck for me and good luck for them !

      I have bored you all enough now on this topic. Now go and play poker and by the way good luck !
      77 is a standard raise preflop. Preflop skill is not where you make most of your money in hold'em though so I will not argue with you on the raise. You can continue thinking that preflop is 100% luck.

      I would not cbet in that situation usually. This flop tends to hit calling ranges pretty hard. AJ A9 KQ KJ KT QJ QT JT will not fold this flop. Ax that misses and pairs are all you get to fold. You could cbet against a tighter player who would fold KQ KT and A9 as well; it is all about being observant and watching the players at your table (skill). You need to think more about the situation because it isn't just "I raised preflop so I cbet" NO!

      Now as played on the turn we have to check/fold since he either has A: a bigger pair or B: a good draw with 10 or more outs to beat us.

      This river is not one you should ever bet. You learn that the purpose of a bet is to either: A: make a better hand fold or B: make a worse hand call. K9 is the only better hand that might fold to you here so your bet was awful. You cannot do either so a check is the best option. If he bets the river you have to decide what he could be betting with. Ax KQ KT slowplayed hands and some awful bluffs. Against this range you are not doing too good so if the bet is of a reasonable size then you let him have the pot.

      I would have made different decisions than you. I explained my thought process behind my decisions. Decisions are what skill is all about. When you play a game of chess and lose do you call that luck? How about a game of basketball and you lose is that luck? Are you going to continue being a breakeven player at poker playing super abc style same as everyone else and call it luck?

      Oh and if you want some kind of mathematical proof on why there is skill in poker just forget it. Although it would fascinate me to see something like this it would probably be extremely difficult to understand.
    • Lindberg789
      Lindberg789
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.04.2009 Posts: 314
      Yeah, gonna give this a go too, even do converting a fish into a somewhat decent player with understanding of the game seems to be a mistake. ;D

      But think about sngs, mastering icm, putting people on a range that's already two "skills" - math skill and hand reading skill. ;D
      There you go - Poker isn't just luck.
    • fuzzyfish
      fuzzyfish
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.01.2010 Posts: 862
      U guys notice how this guy creates a thread and then doesnt write a simple post afterwards. Khm, he calls it "an article". He prolly has some issues and needs attention/care (medical?). So why bother writing 100 replies? Its like arguing w religuous people, really.
    • Alficor1
      Alficor1
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.06.2010 Posts: 7,291
      Poker is pure pure luck. Now come on baby and sit to my table.:s_biggrin:
    • Hahaownedlolz
      Hahaownedlolz
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.04.2009 Posts: 1,755
      Why are you doing this?

      The site is called pokerstrategy.com and then your saying there is no strategy or skill in poker..

      That's like going on a religious forum and say there is no god.

      Or going on an alcohol addicts forum and then say drinking is the best thing that happened in your life..
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