Interesting hand I found in one of the quizzes

    • goldchess
      Joined: 17.02.2010 Posts: 641
      Should we really be that desperate here? Even after going through the blinds we still have 5bb. The quiz assumes our opponents play perfect ICM, so I think this should be a fold, also Phzon has been telling us to not push so loose from UTG. Opinions?

      Problem 8
      Blinds: 100/200
      Hero: 1320
      MP2: 3940
      MP3: 1710
      CO: 5500
      BU: 1550
      SB: 1860
      BB: 4020

      Preflop: Hero is UTG with 9s 7s

      You are in the Big Blind in the next round.
      What do you do?

      push (3 Points)
      fold (0 Points)

      Your answer fold (0 Points)
      According to an ICM tool, we can push a range of 16.7% (22+, A8s+, A5s-A4s, ATo+, K9s+, KJo+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s) here, but ICM doesn't take into account that we have to pay blinds in the next hand, rendering our stack less worthy than assumed by ICM. Seeing how the stack is worth less, we can lose less and win more. We thus push (considerably) looser than recommended by ICM here, turning 97s into an easy push decision.
  • 3 replies
    • pzhon
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      I agree with folding.

      This is something which depends on the games in which you play. So, some people may be used to seeing this as a profitable shove, while some will see too many calls for this to be profitable. I think people gave too much respect to UTG raises in 2007, but now I see a lot of calls which are outside the Nash equilibrium range after short stacks push UTG. Usually, if you see players call wider than the Nash calling ranges, that means you have to push tighter than the Nash pushing range. Even if the push was profitable 3 years ago, it has to be reviewed for today's games.

      The ICM does not see the cost of hitting the blinds. However, if you steal the blinds, or get called and double up, you still hit the blinds. You only save the full cost of posting the blinds if you get called and bust out. This means the adjustment you should make for hitting the blinds might be quite small.

      If you advance the blinds, the Nash calculator suggests that the Hero will lose 0.666% of the prize pool in the big blind. If you assume that a push now will get called about 40% of the time, resulting in 25% bust-outs, then you can make pushes which the ICM says will lose about 25% of 0.666%, or about 0.17% of the prize pool. You can use a minimum edge of -0.17% in SNG Wizard, although of course you have to adjust a lot of ranges after that to get reasonable results.
    • Hlynkinn
      Joined: 14.06.2008 Posts: 4,998
      Although it's correct what pzhon is saying about the -ev push from UTG used to be a way better move than it is today, I still feel like this is a solid push on a table where we have no edge since everyone is playing "Perfect ICM"
    • pzhon
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      Could you look into your database, and see how often you get called when you shove UTG 6- or 7-handed for 5-8 bb with blinds of about 100/200? Ideally, you should exclude times when you pushed with an ace in your hand, since that tends to block people from having a calling hand.

      For comparison, in the Nash equilibrium, you are supposed to get called by quite tight ranges since your Nash opponents put you on an 18% range. So, you are supposed to get called by ranges of 6%, 7%, 7%, 7%, 8%, and 10%. That means you are supposed to get called about 100% - (.94*.93*.93*.93*.92*.90) = 37% of the time, and if so, then you can't push much wider than the Nash pushing range without losing a large amount of ICM equity.

      I do not expect to get called nearly as tightly as the 77+ AJ+ Nash calling ranges for the BTN, CO and HJ. I see a lot of calls with hands like 55, KQo, and A7s. Of course, perhaps other players are folding AQ and I don't see that. Usually, if you expect to get called wider than the Nash calling range, then you have to drop weaker semibluffing hands from the Nash pushing range, and hands like T9s or Q9s have much more equity when called than 97s.