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[NL2-NL10] NL10 AT, misclick steals a lot of value

    • Pichux
      Joined: 02.02.2009 Posts: 318
      ***** Hand History for Game 2436758545 ***** (IPoker)
      $10.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Sunday, September 19, 12:09:52 ET 2010
      Table Rewo (Real Money)
      Seat 8 is the button
      Seat 1: waclockerr ( $4.71 USD )
      Seat 3: astrapot ( $10.00 USD )
      Seat 5: Chippoza ( $3.45 USD )
      Seat 6: MIXJKD ( $6.70 USD )
      Seat 8: Ch1n0 ( $13.96 USD )
      Seat 10: Piters1990 ( $19.40 USD )
      Piters1990 posts small blind [$0.05 USD].
      waclockerr posts big blind [$0.10 USD].
      ** Dealing down cards **
      Dealt to Piters1990 [ A :club: T :spade: ]
      astrapot folds
      Chippoza folds
      MIXJKD raises [$0.20 USD]
      Ch1n0 folds
      Piters1990 calls [$0.15 USD]
      waclockerr folds
      ** Dealing Flop ** [ J :club: , A :heart: , A :spade: ]
      Piters1990 checks
      MIXJKD bets [$0.37 USD]
      Piters1990 calls [$0.37 USD]
      ** Dealing Turn ** [ Q :heart: ]
      Piters1990 checks
      MIXJKD bets [$0.93 USD]
      Piters1990 calls [$0.93 USD]
      ** Dealing River ** [ J :diamond: ]
      Piters1990 checks

      Villain: 22/18/inf. on 333h sample. With a read, that minopenraise is a standart raise pre.

      Flop is ok IMO. I think i should have defended my hand on the turn although KT could also not be in his openraising range. And i think that he bets bigger here if he hits on the turn. The river was a misclick, it's obvious that on this river i want to play for stacks...
  • 1 reply
    • MaestroOfZerg
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510

      I don't think it's that easy. Here is my take on it.

      We don't beat any Ax anymore on that river, that it's that many less hands to valuebet against.

      I don't think we should give villain too much credit for valuebetting a turned pair of Q, and even if he did, it's a pretty clear fold for Q if we donk the river.

      I don't think we should give villain credit for valuebetting a flopped pair of J on the Q overcard turn on such a board too often either. It's possible but really I expect a lot of guys to just check back and try and spike a gutshot which is quite a likely hand for them to have. That means it's hard for villain to have an underboat unless he's good enough to valuebet Jx on the Q turn.

      We do beat KT but if we donk the river this isn't an easy call for KT by any means, as we can't be bluffing and we wouldn't bet Qx, so we'll have a boat a whole lot.

      So really, there isn't that much value in donking the river unless villain is either good enough to valuebet Jx on the turn or bad enough to call KT when it's blatantly obvious we have a boat.

      The flip side of that when we do donk out is that we're quite likely to get shoved on by any and all Ax hands thinking they have the nuts, that includes AQ that does indeed have the nuts and is clearly in his range. So we'll be in a splitting/behind spot which usually will result in us having to either make a crying call and see AQ sometimes, or make a crying fold and get taken off the chop sometimes.

      I think I'd rather just check/call in that spot, if villain is good enough to valuebet Jx on the turn he might even try and bet the river with it anyway figuring we're just a moron that turned Qx or KT.

      Hope it helps.