A8o, BU is all in, ICM says folding is a mistake. Why

    • Vepof
      Joined: 04.01.2010 Posts: 72
      Well, i was doing my daily ICM (for lack of Dr. House new episodes on my comp) and i could not understand this hand:

      Five players on the table.I am big blind (stack 480) . SB and BB paid.

      Everyone folds. Button is all in (5.360)

      The pot is: 5.660, i have A 8 offsuit.

      i folded. And ICM says i should push.

      Now, why?

      Did i mark the "gambling" box accidentally?
  • 10 replies
    • phantommm92
      Joined: 14.05.2010 Posts: 1,464
      because you have 480 chips, with that stack A8 is nuts and if you dont double up now, then you will have to gamble with either a worse hand or a better, but either way you will need at least 2 double ups.
    • bradomurder
      Joined: 17.10.2008 Posts: 1,329
      what are the blinds?

      Its just about pot odds. Say, for example, the blinds are 100-200 then you're calling 280 to win 1060 so you only need about 27% equity.

      also because BU is pushing into a small BB his range is looser so you're hand does better.
    • andreibalint
      Joined: 11.04.2009 Posts: 872
      1. What are the blinds?
      2. What is the stack of the other opponents? - very important

      If you are by far the shortest stack you can call looser with decent hands since you don't have much fold equity and future perspectives anyway.

      In my opinion, if blinds are 100/200 this is an instant call, if they are 25/50 it's an instant fold.

      If they are 50/100 there is 150 in the pot, about 30% of your stack and if you know about bubble factors the bubble factor i think will be around 1.3-1.5 (if you are indeed the short stack). And BU is pushing very loose, perhaps any 2, because you have to call tight cause you want to get ITM.

      In other words you need a slightly better hand then completely random to make this call profitable. To be sure eliminate the word "slightly" from the previous sentence.

      But an ace, especially a middle ace can be put confortably in this category. My range here would be something like 66+, maybe 55, Ax+ (maybe without A2o, A3o,A4o) and high face cards like KJ,KQ, maybe QJ.
    • chenny8888
      Joined: 03.10.2007 Posts: 19,324
      I think the reason why there are no new House MD episodes is because TV shows like to end the season with a bit of a cliffhanger. The last season ended at quite a crucial point in Dr. House's relationship with Dr. Cuddy. There will, however, be new House episodes tomorrow, when Season 7 of House MD commences.
    • zhenzhenZHEN
      Joined: 26.04.2009 Posts: 190
      wat ^
    • TerrorBlade
      Joined: 16.10.2007 Posts: 1,922
      You say that you have a lack of episodes on your computer. chenny8888 stated above that this could be due to the new season simply not being out, but I'd like to add that you might have simply not downloaded them, easy mistake often made by newer players.

      There are also plenty of other quality shows out there for you to watch so that you don't run into this situation again, for example Dexter season 5 is starting in less than a week, and has a positive recommendation from the PokerStrategy.com staff.
    • dydukas
      Joined: 01.05.2009 Posts: 1,271
      Dexter and House, my two favorites. :f_thumbsup:
    • swissmoumout
      Joined: 23.02.2007 Posts: 3,385
      meh, I didn't really like the way they went with the last episode of dexter tbh. Though it'll be interesting to see how it goes from there, I guess.
    • Vepof
      Joined: 04.01.2010 Posts: 72
      Nah, i'm at season 2, the lack happens because everytime i get a new ep. downloaded i NEED to watch right away. Its stronger than me.

      Btw: Blinds are 100/200...

      5.660 is the pot. I have to pay all my stack witch is 480.

      5.660 - 480

      So, it gives me 4.6 - 4 odds, 1.6-1? Is that nearly right?

      And any ace or 8 in the deck would give me a playable hand considering button is loose.

      44 - 8

      Round 5 -1...

      Man those math kills me...

      (Secret about me: I'm trying to learn, this hand don't really confuses me that much, but i'm getting a lot of new information with you guys, thank you)
    • chenny8888
      Joined: 03.10.2007 Posts: 19,324
      serious mode:

      you don't win villain's whole stack if you call. You only get how much you put in (times 2). Otherwise your pot odds calculation could be correct. Most likely it is calling 480 to win 480+480+200+200+100 or we need 480/1460 = 32.9% equity to call. Based on chipEV only and not taking into account things like payouts etc in the tournament.